I have no idea what will happen today. It looks like there is a Republican information cascade coming in for John McCain and the combination of that cascade, and Mike Huckabee happy playing spoiler in the Deep South will allow McCain to come out of today in very good shape against Romney. However the Democratic side is a happy mess. At this point I see the field as if a football team is being told to choose a quarterback and Roethlesberger and Romo are still on the board --- I'm pretty happy with either one and it is mainly a matter of marginal preference.
So here are my predictions for the Dems --- Obama loses California due to early voters breaking overwhelmingly for Clinton but is within a handful of points there, and New Jersey, Conn. and Mass. He keeps it much closer than any of the polling would have shown last week in the Clinton core states while significantly expanding his lead in Illinois, and Georgia. Clinton comes out of tonight with less than 100 pledged delegate lead count and is in a bit of trouble as the cash on hand is next to nil. Pennsylvania political junkies salivate at the thought that our primary may be valuable.
Furthermore, many people will use this very, very helpful spreadsheet that a good friend of mine produced for our Super Fat Tuesday Primary Election Night Extravaganza as their primary tracking mechanism for the day.
Libby's predictions: I've been pretty much focused on family stuff for the last couple of weeks so I don't have a clue what to expect on a state by state basis. My only prediction this round is that Obama will do better than expected overall and that neither will have a lock on the nomination at the end of the day. As for the GOP, I have a feeling that McCain won't end the day with a lock either but will emerge as the clear frontrunner but I wouldn't necessarily want to stake my booze on it.
shamanic sez: I predict with absolute certainty that Barack Obama will receive at least one vote in Georgia, because I'm going to get myself cleaned up and head over to my polling place in a bit. He's been running ads here for weeks, and I don't know if that means he plans to contest Georgia in the fall if he's the nominee, but it's a damn good sign.
No idea how the state-by-state will look, but my next prediction is that for a while during the afternoon, I'll be napping so I can be awake when California is called.
Cernig: I'm going with the pollsters, because I like sending booze to my co-bloggers. McCain and Clinton pretty much everywhere, much as I might wish it otherwise.
Showing posts with label Whiskey Caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Whiskey Caucus. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Monday, January 28, 2008
What's the fascination with Rice?
The Newshogger's whiskey caucus started in the collective experience that Shamanic, Cernig and myself had when we were blogging together at the Unpaid Pundits. One of our conservative Republican co-bloggers in the spirng and summer of 2005 was convinced that Condoleeza Rice was the perfect and winning 2008 GOP nominee. We saw a massive opportunity to get some good booze out of this situation and bet heavily against it. However due to counter-party risk, we have had to write down our bets to zero as we know we won't get paid.
Back then I could not understand the excitement on some parts of the right that Condoleeza Rice generated. Right now I can understand the institutional and structural supports behind the remaining Republican nominees; Romney matches up with the money, Huckabee with the evanglicals, McCain and Guiliani with the Hawks; Rice would have been set up as George H.W. Bush following Junior. She is and has been a non-entity who has not been able to credibly establish herself as a major bureaucratic power with any independence beyond that of being a Bush family lackey. She has no sigificant political or policy accomplishments that appeal to the Republican primary electorate, and if we think debate on the Wilder effect is significant with Obama, it would be drowned out by polling 'discrepencies' generated by a black woman running in a Republican primary. In 2005 Dick Morris floated a purely anti-Clinton identity politics rationale for nominating Rice, but even then his calculations seemed weak.
And yet this talk will still not die down. Via Miami Progressive, Robert Novak is passing along rumors about Rice as VP for McCain.
Who does she deliver? What charge does she advance or refute? What states come over to the GOP column because of her? I don't get this Rice boomlet as there is no substance to back it up.
Back then I could not understand the excitement on some parts of the right that Condoleeza Rice generated. Right now I can understand the institutional and structural supports behind the remaining Republican nominees; Romney matches up with the money, Huckabee with the evanglicals, McCain and Guiliani with the Hawks; Rice would have been set up as George H.W. Bush following Junior. She is and has been a non-entity who has not been able to credibly establish herself as a major bureaucratic power with any independence beyond that of being a Bush family lackey. She has no sigificant political or policy accomplishments that appeal to the Republican primary electorate, and if we think debate on the Wilder effect is significant with Obama, it would be drowned out by polling 'discrepencies' generated by a black woman running in a Republican primary. In 2005 Dick Morris floated a purely anti-Clinton identity politics rationale for nominating Rice, but even then his calculations seemed weak.
And yet this talk will still not die down. Via Miami Progressive, Robert Novak is passing along rumors about Rice as VP for McCain.
Who does she deliver? What charge does she advance or refute? What states come over to the GOP column because of her? I don't get this Rice boomlet as there is no substance to back it up.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Nevada Whiskey Caucus
Nevada is tomorrow, and the Silver State is the center of attention. If Obama can pull off a win here and in South Carolina, Super Tuesday becomes very interesting while Clinton can create some breathing room by winning with a bit of a margin. On the Republican side, all I know is that I will continue to root for Ron Paul to beat Rudy Guiliani on general principal. I wonder what the Irish bookies are offering on the prospect of a first time winner on either or both sides. Low odds, I am sure, but not impossible odds.
I'll take my winnings, if any, in Makers Mark
Democrats:
Obama by a nose
Clinton pushing hard but beaten by union support
Edwards will start to fade as electability is a concern for his supporters and they start distributing themselves to one of the two front running camps
Kucinich crushes Gravel
Republicans:
Romney as he has had the time and money to organize everywhere
McCain trails by more than a field goal but less than a touchdown
Huckabee
Thompson wakes up and nips at Huckabee's heels
Paul
Guiliani where after his fifth consecutive fourth place finish or worse has the field exactly where he wants them; ahead, better funded, better liked, and overconfident [/snark]
shamanic jumps in with an uh-oh:
My booze is on Fester's list. That's how I'd stack 'em too. What do we do now?
I will note: the day before the NH primary, I made an alcohol-inspired $50 bet with a friend who works nearby that Obama would beat Clinton. He wanted Obama to win, but just believed his gut's insight that Clinton would pull it out. I was very happy all day Tuesday, believing that I had picked up a midget prince's sum of cash, then obviously felt dumb and poor at the end of the night.
I saw him the other evening at his job and told him we needed to talk payment plans, and he balked and told me he couldn't accept money from a friend. That was a damn nice thing of him to do. And his obviously inspired gut tells him that the general will be McCain-Clinton, which caused everyone in the discussion (all liberals) to ponder the relative merits of voting for McCain. It's interesting how that happens when we imagine Clinton as the nominee.
Cernig I think the Ayatollah From Arkansas still has more God-fearing, constitution-amending supporters out there than the conservative establishment and blogs are giving him credit for. This is the big one the Dominionists have been after for decades after all, the promise to end any separation of church and state - they're going to mobilise the troops. My gut feeling (hey, it's good enough for Chertoff on national security matters) is that the GOP primary will end: Huck, Romney, McCain, Fred. On the donk side, I think Clinton will edge it this time (mind you, I said the same about Obama in NH) followed by Obama then Edwards. The rest don't matter now except as gadlfies to the frontrunners and Fred is rapidly heading for the same status.
Libby Picks:I don't really have a read on Nevada. I base my predictions mainly on anectodal sociological observations and I don't know much about the southwest, so I'm in wild guess territory on this one. I'm going to take Clinton again in a close contest with Obama second and Edwards a distant but decent third.
On the GOP side, I have to agree with the consensus here. Romney, but maybe with not as wide a win as Fester and Sha are predicting. Huckabee and McCain will be closely contested in second and I'm conflicted on this one. I'm inclined to call it for Huck just to be a contrarian but I do want to win that booze, so I'm calling it for McCain by a hair. I'm also conflicted on Thompson and Paul for fourth but I have to call it for Fred and again, I think it will be razor close. The only prediction I'm confident in making is that Rudy will come in under Ron Paul again. Meanwhile, I'm sticking to Bushmills for my prize.
I'll take my winnings, if any, in Makers Mark
Democrats:
Republicans:
shamanic jumps in with an uh-oh:
My booze is on Fester's list. That's how I'd stack 'em too. What do we do now?
I will note: the day before the NH primary, I made an alcohol-inspired $50 bet with a friend who works nearby that Obama would beat Clinton. He wanted Obama to win, but just believed his gut's insight that Clinton would pull it out. I was very happy all day Tuesday, believing that I had picked up a midget prince's sum of cash, then obviously felt dumb and poor at the end of the night.
I saw him the other evening at his job and told him we needed to talk payment plans, and he balked and told me he couldn't accept money from a friend. That was a damn nice thing of him to do. And his obviously inspired gut tells him that the general will be McCain-Clinton, which caused everyone in the discussion (all liberals) to ponder the relative merits of voting for McCain. It's interesting how that happens when we imagine Clinton as the nominee.
Cernig I think the Ayatollah From Arkansas still has more God-fearing, constitution-amending supporters out there than the conservative establishment and blogs are giving him credit for. This is the big one the Dominionists have been after for decades after all, the promise to end any separation of church and state - they're going to mobilise the troops. My gut feeling (hey, it's good enough for Chertoff on national security matters) is that the GOP primary will end: Huck, Romney, McCain, Fred. On the donk side, I think Clinton will edge it this time (mind you, I said the same about Obama in NH) followed by Obama then Edwards. The rest don't matter now except as gadlfies to the frontrunners and Fred is rapidly heading for the same status.
Libby Picks:I don't really have a read on Nevada. I base my predictions mainly on anectodal sociological observations and I don't know much about the southwest, so I'm in wild guess territory on this one. I'm going to take Clinton again in a close contest with Obama second and Edwards a distant but decent third.
On the GOP side, I have to agree with the consensus here. Romney, but maybe with not as wide a win as Fester and Sha are predicting. Huckabee and McCain will be closely contested in second and I'm conflicted on this one. I'm inclined to call it for Huck just to be a contrarian but I do want to win that booze, so I'm calling it for McCain by a hair. I'm also conflicted on Thompson and Paul for fourth but I have to call it for Fred and again, I think it will be razor close. The only prediction I'm confident in making is that Rudy will come in under Ron Paul again. Meanwhile, I'm sticking to Bushmills for my prize.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Nail Biting and Happy Indifference
Wow, that is about all I can say. And also double wow as my wife, who normally chuckles at my political junkie hobby is happily flipping between Office reruns and CNN, quietly cheering every update that has Clinton adding another half dozen or a gross of votes to her margin over Obama.
If I had to have voted today, I think I would have voted for John Edwards but this time around it is so much less stressful as I am generally and generically happy with the leading three Democratic candidates while in 2004 I was very happy with Dean, okay with Clark, wary about Edwards and Kerry, and indifferent at best to Lieberman. I want a long nomination process as I think the debates and the practice that the candidates are getting in is a healthy process, and I also think that Obama's critical claim of differentiation --- bi-partisan rhetoric, leadership language, and kick-ass organizing to bring in independents, young voters and infrequent voters to the Democratic coalition needs to be seriously fielded tested. Is Iowa a good predictor? Or is New Hampshire where massive voter turnout occurred without independents being disproportionally overrepresented the norm? Or something else?
Beyond that a couple more quick thoughts:
None of us can predict primary elections well....
Libby may just have a bottle of Bushmills going her way if we take the horseshoes and hand grenade approach as it looks like she got the Dems right and got the top two Republicans right...
Being a bit cynical, were all of the leaks today about disorder and disaester striking the Clinton camp a leak hunt?
Ouch, the Nevada Culinary Union thought they could have timed their endorsement for maximum value at low cost, now the internal cost of their endorsement decision has massively increased
I like being happily indifferent, far less stress, and far cheaper on the bank account
If I had to have voted today, I think I would have voted for John Edwards but this time around it is so much less stressful as I am generally and generically happy with the leading three Democratic candidates while in 2004 I was very happy with Dean, okay with Clark, wary about Edwards and Kerry, and indifferent at best to Lieberman. I want a long nomination process as I think the debates and the practice that the candidates are getting in is a healthy process, and I also think that Obama's critical claim of differentiation --- bi-partisan rhetoric, leadership language, and kick-ass organizing to bring in independents, young voters and infrequent voters to the Democratic coalition needs to be seriously fielded tested. Is Iowa a good predictor? Or is New Hampshire where massive voter turnout occurred without independents being disproportionally overrepresented the norm? Or something else?
Beyond that a couple more quick thoughts:
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus, NH Edition
by shamanic
Alright kids, after finishing out Iowa with none of us getting both parties' order right (though I was the only one to get everything spectacularly wrong), it's time for another edition of the Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus.
Here's how it works: each of us will name our poison and prognosticate the NH results live for you. Winners, should there be any, are owed their choice of beverage by the losers. I'm really not sure what happens if, say, we all pick the same order, and we haven't figured out a scoring system. Obviously if there was one, I would be rounding out the bottom with a big fat goose egg.
shamanic's New Hampshire picks:
My New Hampshire preference is Beefeater Gin.
Dems:
Barack Obama
Hillary
Edwards
Republicans:
McCain, by a nose
Romney
Thompson
Huck
Libby's picks:
I love this caucus. I'm sticking with Bushmills for my poison and I'm predicting Clinton will take it, followed by Obama and Edwards with a respectable third place showing, enough to keep him in the race.
On the GOP side, McCain will take it with a respectable margin, followed by Romney and I'm going out on a limb and predicting Ron Paul will come in at third. He'll do better than he did in Iowa but still won't break into the 20 percentile.
Fester's New Hampshire's Picks
I had some goodluck, pulling an order out of my ass analyzing the Democratic caucses impartially in Iowa this week. Given the end of the week that I've been having, I'll go back to a high school favorite for my poison --- Old Grandad bourbon when I'll win.
Democrats
* Obama as the momemntum carries him over the top
* Clinton stays within three points
* Edwards behind Clinton by about 12 points
* Richardson has a higher percentage in the Dem. primary than Guiliani for a weak 4th place finish
Republicans
* Romney
* McCain has no momentum coming out of his 4th place finish in Iowa and Chris Matthews is not allowed to vote in New Hampshire
* Huckabee --- there are enough social-cons in New Hampshire to move him into the midteens
* Paul -- this is the most favorable state for him to contest 15% in a crowded field, I don't think he'll hit that, but this is his best chance
* Thompson
* Guiliani -- the balcony collapsed
Cernig
Reading through the op-eds today, I've got a real feeling that the gestalt crystallising around Obama is that he has successfully out-Blaired both Clinton and Edwards to become the candidate who will "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Democratic Party" all at the same time. I have to say I was caught unawares - and I think Edwards was too. Obama has done a great job of stealing his shtick from under his nose.
For that reason, I'm predicting another Obama win, by a small margin over Clinton and with edwards third by a fair margin.
For the Republicans, I think it's now a two horse race too. Romney won Wyoming today which means he's the new Blair for the GOP. He will promise to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Republican Party" and money-cons will hold their noses to make sure an electable hairstyle beats Huckabee. Huckabee will come second by promising to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Christians of America" and John McCain will place third. Rudy Mussolini is toast - he can't get the Christofundie vote yet he's nowhere near as Blair as Mitt is and thus not able to promise to listen, change or stay true even to his current wife. Fred is dead and just isn't bright enough to have realised he should stop moving yet.
Alright kids, after finishing out Iowa with none of us getting both parties' order right (though I was the only one to get everything spectacularly wrong), it's time for another edition of the Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus.
Here's how it works: each of us will name our poison and prognosticate the NH results live for you. Winners, should there be any, are owed their choice of beverage by the losers. I'm really not sure what happens if, say, we all pick the same order, and we haven't figured out a scoring system. Obviously if there was one, I would be rounding out the bottom with a big fat goose egg.
shamanic's New Hampshire picks:
My New Hampshire preference is Beefeater Gin.
Dems:
Barack Obama
Hillary
Edwards
Republicans:
McCain, by a nose
Romney
Thompson
Huck
Libby's picks:
I love this caucus. I'm sticking with Bushmills for my poison and I'm predicting Clinton will take it, followed by Obama and Edwards with a respectable third place showing, enough to keep him in the race.
On the GOP side, McCain will take it with a respectable margin, followed by Romney and I'm going out on a limb and predicting Ron Paul will come in at third. He'll do better than he did in Iowa but still won't break into the 20 percentile.
Fester's New Hampshire's Picks
I had some good
Democrats
Republicans
Cernig
Reading through the op-eds today, I've got a real feeling that the gestalt crystallising around Obama is that he has successfully out-Blaired both Clinton and Edwards to become the candidate who will "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Democratic Party" all at the same time. I have to say I was caught unawares - and I think Edwards was too. Obama has done a great job of stealing his shtick from under his nose.
For that reason, I'm predicting another Obama win, by a small margin over Clinton and with edwards third by a fair margin.
For the Republicans, I think it's now a two horse race too. Romney won Wyoming today which means he's the new Blair for the GOP. He will promise to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Republican Party" and money-cons will hold their noses to make sure an electable hairstyle beats Huckabee. Huckabee will come second by promising to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Christians of America" and John McCain will place third. Rudy Mussolini is toast - he can't get the Christofundie vote yet he's nowhere near as Blair as Mitt is and thus not able to promise to listen, change or stay true even to his current wife. Fred is dead and just isn't bright enough to have realised he should stop moving yet.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Happy Caucus Day!
by shamanic
I've got to pop out to give my housemate a lift to work, but Today is The Day. Here in Atlanta, I'll be watching whatever returns are available with the Drinking Liberally group that meets at Thinking Man's Tavern in Decatur. If you come out, say hi. I'm the white girl with dreadlocks whose ends are blue. What are the odds that there will be another?
The Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus bets are here if you want to review our handicapping or throw in your own (we won't hold you to the booze standard though). Some of us will have egg on our faces tomorrow, and given my proud heritage of political handicapping, I've got soap at the ready.
I've got to pop out to give my housemate a lift to work, but Today is The Day. Here in Atlanta, I'll be watching whatever returns are available with the Drinking Liberally group that meets at Thinking Man's Tavern in Decatur. If you come out, say hi. I'm the white girl with dreadlocks whose ends are blue. What are the odds that there will be another?
The Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus bets are here if you want to review our handicapping or throw in your own (we won't hold you to the booze standard though). Some of us will have egg on our faces tomorrow, and given my proud heritage of political handicapping, I've got soap at the ready.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
Iowa polls drive me crazy
by shamanic
I hope you had a fantastic NYE and were able to kiss someone important at the stroke of midnight. I kissed no one last night, which was a fitting end for what I've come to think of as my year of living celibately. Mike Huckabee is so proud of me right now! Anyway, there's some news this morning.
While I find Andrew Sullivan's "Know hope" tag line for stuff he likes pretty much insufferable, I really do hope that the poll he cites here is showing something real. It puts Obama ahead in Iowa, which would be fantastically good news for us furiously Bush deranged Dems who want a principled and sincere leader for our country who will govern through a process of inclusion. We haters are a crusty bunch who are only out to destroy America, after all.
Iowa polling is so confusing and the caucus process, especially on the Dem side, so odd that it's hard to tell if any of these polls reflect anything at all. We'll know in two days. In the meantime: Know confusion.
Then again, if the poll is right it means I have to buy liquor for at least some of my colleagues. Ouch.
I hope you had a fantastic NYE and were able to kiss someone important at the stroke of midnight. I kissed no one last night, which was a fitting end for what I've come to think of as my year of living celibately. Mike Huckabee is so proud of me right now! Anyway, there's some news this morning.
While I find Andrew Sullivan's "Know hope" tag line for stuff he likes pretty much insufferable, I really do hope that the poll he cites here is showing something real. It puts Obama ahead in Iowa, which would be fantastically good news for us furiously Bush deranged Dems who want a principled and sincere leader for our country who will govern through a process of inclusion. We haters are a crusty bunch who are only out to destroy America, after all.
Iowa polling is so confusing and the caucus process, especially on the Dem side, so odd that it's hard to tell if any of these polls reflect anything at all. We'll know in two days. In the meantime: Know confusion.
Then again, if the poll is right it means I have to buy liquor for at least some of my colleagues. Ouch.
Monday, December 31, 2007
The Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus
by shamanic
Back in 2005, Cernig, Fester, and I wrote for a multi-partisan group blog called The Unpaid Punditry Corps which featured just shy of ten writers of various ideological stripes. It's the truth to say that Hurricane Katrina swept UPC away: the conservatives in the group *freaked* when, a week into the mess in New Orleans, we on the left began noting that what we were really watching was conservatism play out in the devastated streets of an American city.
Anyway, one thing we used to do at UPC was bet a bottle of whiskey on electoral outcomes. These never ended up being paid, but since the Newshoggers crew appears more stable and the Iowa caucuses are just days away, I want to suggest to my partners here that you belly up to the bar and get to betting on the outcome. Losers owe winners a bottle of something. I like Tequila with the 1800 label.
shamanic's Iowa Caucus predictions for Democrats & Republicans:
Dems: Clinton will edge Obama by a point or two, with Edwards coming in a strong third, four or five points behind.
Republicans: Mitt Romney will take it with a pretty clear margin, 5-6 points, over Mike Huckabee, who will immediately blame Pakistani-Americans in Iowa for sabotaging his Jesus-ordained candidacy. Okay, I don't actually predict that last part.
Fester's Take I'll collect my winnings via either a good single malt or Kentucky Bourbon....
Democrats in Iowa
Obama by a point a two
Edwards on the strength of horse trading and 2nd choices will have another two points over Clinton
Clinton does well but her ground game is out-hustled by a tacit Obama-Edwards alliance and smart shifting of caucus goers to maximize the anti-Clinton votes.
Republicans in Iowa
Romney
McCain by a whisker
Huckabee
Thompson
And now where is Condoleeza Rice as she was supposed to be the GOP's savior candidate and the reason why I should have a couple very nice bottles of Scotch in my liquor cabinet from the UPC days.....
Libby's picks: I got bored with the horserace stuff quite some time ago and haven't been following the polls closely but I'll play. Edwards will ride his recent 'mo to a narrow win, followed hard by Clinton in second and Obama in a close third.
On the GOP side, Huckabee will squeak in barely ahead of Romney. McCain at third. Surprise here will be a strong showing for Ron Paul who will come out with low double digits.
Oops! Empty reminds me in comments that I forgot to pick my prize. I'm not a big drinker anymore. The only thing I generally drink besides beer is champagne and I only like Moet White Star. But if I must pick a hard liquor, I'd go with a good Irish single malt, so make mine Bushmills.
Cernig's Picks The reason I don't blog about the races much is because I really don't have a clue about the U.S. system and I'm not a member or even supporter of any US party. That means I don't follow the polls and stories. For me as for much of the rest of the world, it's the eventual candidates for each party, and then the elected President, that really count. But I'll make some wild guesses based on gut instinct rather than polls and reports.
Edwards will be the "Tony Blair" for the Dems in Iowa as elsewhere, with Obama and Clinton running neck and neck just behind him. He'll promise inclusion of all wings of the party and all parts of society, he'll promise to listen, and he'll promise to stay true to the party's ideals - and it will all be cover.
For the Republicans, Huckabee by a nose over Romney, with McCain emerging in third as the candidate for conservatives who aren't either insane fundies or insane warmongers.
If I win (LOL) it has to be best Scotch single malt all the way. Isle of Jura for preference.
Back in 2005, Cernig, Fester, and I wrote for a multi-partisan group blog called The Unpaid Punditry Corps which featured just shy of ten writers of various ideological stripes. It's the truth to say that Hurricane Katrina swept UPC away: the conservatives in the group *freaked* when, a week into the mess in New Orleans, we on the left began noting that what we were really watching was conservatism play out in the devastated streets of an American city.
Anyway, one thing we used to do at UPC was bet a bottle of whiskey on electoral outcomes. These never ended up being paid, but since the Newshoggers crew appears more stable and the Iowa caucuses are just days away, I want to suggest to my partners here that you belly up to the bar and get to betting on the outcome. Losers owe winners a bottle of something. I like Tequila with the 1800 label.
shamanic's Iowa Caucus predictions for Democrats & Republicans:
Dems: Clinton will edge Obama by a point or two, with Edwards coming in a strong third, four or five points behind.
Republicans: Mitt Romney will take it with a pretty clear margin, 5-6 points, over Mike Huckabee, who will immediately blame Pakistani-Americans in Iowa for sabotaging his Jesus-ordained candidacy. Okay, I don't actually predict that last part.
Fester's Take I'll collect my winnings via either a good single malt or Kentucky Bourbon....
Democrats in Iowa
Republicans in Iowa
And now where is Condoleeza Rice as she was supposed to be the GOP's savior candidate and the reason why I should have a couple very nice bottles of Scotch in my liquor cabinet from the UPC days.....
Libby's picks: I got bored with the horserace stuff quite some time ago and haven't been following the polls closely but I'll play. Edwards will ride his recent 'mo to a narrow win, followed hard by Clinton in second and Obama in a close third.
On the GOP side, Huckabee will squeak in barely ahead of Romney. McCain at third. Surprise here will be a strong showing for Ron Paul who will come out with low double digits.
Oops! Empty reminds me in comments that I forgot to pick my prize. I'm not a big drinker anymore. The only thing I generally drink besides beer is champagne and I only like Moet White Star. But if I must pick a hard liquor, I'd go with a good Irish single malt, so make mine Bushmills.
Cernig's Picks The reason I don't blog about the races much is because I really don't have a clue about the U.S. system and I'm not a member or even supporter of any US party. That means I don't follow the polls and stories. For me as for much of the rest of the world, it's the eventual candidates for each party, and then the elected President, that really count. But I'll make some wild guesses based on gut instinct rather than polls and reports.
Edwards will be the "Tony Blair" for the Dems in Iowa as elsewhere, with Obama and Clinton running neck and neck just behind him. He'll promise inclusion of all wings of the party and all parts of society, he'll promise to listen, and he'll promise to stay true to the party's ideals - and it will all be cover.
For the Republicans, Huckabee by a nose over Romney, with McCain emerging in third as the candidate for conservatives who aren't either insane fundies or insane warmongers.
If I win (LOL) it has to be best Scotch single malt all the way. Isle of Jura for preference.
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