Monday, December 31, 2007

The Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus

by shamanic

Back in 2005, Cernig, Fester, and I wrote for a multi-partisan group blog called The Unpaid Punditry Corps which featured just shy of ten writers of various ideological stripes. It's the truth to say that Hurricane Katrina swept UPC away: the conservatives in the group *freaked* when, a week into the mess in New Orleans, we on the left began noting that what we were really watching was conservatism play out in the devastated streets of an American city.

Anyway, one thing we used to do at UPC was bet a bottle of whiskey on electoral outcomes. These never ended up being paid, but since the Newshoggers crew appears more stable and the Iowa caucuses are just days away, I want to suggest to my partners here that you belly up to the bar and get to betting on the outcome. Losers owe winners a bottle of something. I like Tequila with the 1800 label.

shamanic's Iowa Caucus predictions for Democrats & Republicans:
Dems: Clinton will edge Obama by a point or two, with Edwards coming in a strong third, four or five points behind.
Republicans: Mitt Romney will take it with a pretty clear margin, 5-6 points, over Mike Huckabee, who will immediately blame Pakistani-Americans in Iowa for sabotaging his Jesus-ordained candidacy. Okay, I don't actually predict that last part.

Fester's Take I'll collect my winnings via either a good single malt or Kentucky Bourbon....

Democrats in Iowa

  • Obama by a point a two

  • Edwards on the strength of horse trading and 2nd choices will have another two points over Clinton

  • Clinton does well but her ground game is out-hustled by a tacit Obama-Edwards alliance and smart shifting of caucus goers to maximize the anti-Clinton votes.


  • Republicans in Iowa
  • Romney

  • McCain by a whisker

  • Huckabee

  • Thompson


  • And now where is Condoleeza Rice as she was supposed to be the GOP's savior candidate and the reason why I should have a couple very nice bottles of Scotch in my liquor cabinet from the UPC days.....

    Libby's picks: I got bored with the horserace stuff quite some time ago and haven't been following the polls closely but I'll play. Edwards will ride his recent 'mo to a narrow win, followed hard by Clinton in second and Obama in a close third.

    On the GOP side, Huckabee will squeak in barely ahead of Romney. McCain at third. Surprise here will be a strong showing for Ron Paul who will come out with low double digits.

    Oops! Empty reminds me in comments that I forgot to pick my prize. I'm not a big drinker anymore. The only thing I generally drink besides beer is champagne and I only like Moet White Star. But if I must pick a hard liquor, I'd go with a good Irish single malt, so make mine Bushmills.

    Cernig's Picks The reason I don't blog about the races much is because I really don't have a clue about the U.S. system and I'm not a member or even supporter of any US party. That means I don't follow the polls and stories. For me as for much of the rest of the world, it's the eventual candidates for each party, and then the elected President, that really count. But I'll make some wild guesses based on gut instinct rather than polls and reports.

    Edwards will be the "Tony Blair" for the Dems in Iowa as elsewhere, with Obama and Clinton running neck and neck just behind him. He'll promise inclusion of all wings of the party and all parts of society, he'll promise to listen, and he'll promise to stay true to the party's ideals - and it will all be cover.

    For the Republicans, Huckabee by a nose over Romney, with McCain emerging in third as the candidate for conservatives who aren't either insane fundies or insane warmongers.

    If I win (LOL) it has to be best Scotch single malt all the way. Isle of Jura for preference.