Saturday, January 05, 2008

Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus, NH Edition

by shamanic

Alright kids, after finishing out Iowa with none of us getting both parties' order right (though I was the only one to get everything spectacularly wrong), it's time for another edition of the Newshoggers Whiskey Caucus.

Here's how it works: each of us will name our poison and prognosticate the NH results live for you. Winners, should there be any, are owed their choice of beverage by the losers. I'm really not sure what happens if, say, we all pick the same order, and we haven't figured out a scoring system. Obviously if there was one, I would be rounding out the bottom with a big fat goose egg.

shamanic's New Hampshire picks:

My New Hampshire preference is Beefeater Gin.


Barack Obama


McCain, by a nose

Libby's picks:

I love this caucus. I'm sticking with Bushmills for my poison and I'm predicting Clinton will take it, followed by Obama and Edwards with a respectable third place showing, enough to keep him in the race.

On the GOP side, McCain will take it with a respectable margin, followed by Romney and I'm going out on a limb and predicting Ron Paul will come in at third. He'll do better than he did in Iowa but still won't break into the 20 percentile.

Fester's New Hampshire's Picks

I had some good luck, pulling an order out of my ass analyzing the Democratic caucses impartially in Iowa this week. Given the end of the week that I've been having, I'll go back to a high school favorite for my poison --- Old Grandad bourbon when I'll win.

  • * Obama as the momemntum carries him over the top

  • * Clinton stays within three points

  • * Edwards behind Clinton by about 12 points

  • * Richardson has a higher percentage in the Dem. primary than Guiliani for a weak 4th place finish

  • Republicans

  • * Romney

  • * McCain has no momentum coming out of his 4th place finish in Iowa and Chris Matthews is not allowed to vote in New Hampshire

  • * Huckabee --- there are enough social-cons in New Hampshire to move him into the midteens

  • * Paul -- this is the most favorable state for him to contest 15% in a crowded field, I don't think he'll hit that, but this is his best chance

  • * Thompson

  • * Guiliani -- the balcony collapsed

  • Cernig

    Reading through the op-eds today, I've got a real feeling that the gestalt crystallising around Obama is that he has successfully out-Blaired both Clinton and Edwards to become the candidate who will "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Democratic Party" all at the same time. I have to say I was caught unawares - and I think Edwards was too. Obama has done a great job of stealing his shtick from under his nose.

    For that reason, I'm predicting another Obama win, by a small margin over Clinton and with edwards third by a fair margin.

    For the Republicans, I think it's now a two horse race too. Romney won Wyoming today which means he's the new Blair for the GOP. He will promise to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Republican Party" and money-cons will hold their noses to make sure an electable hairstyle beats Huckabee. Huckabee will come second by promising to "listen to all sides, promote healthy change and stay true to the historic roots of the Christians of America" and John McCain will place third. Rudy Mussolini is toast - he can't get the Christofundie vote yet he's nowhere near as Blair as Mitt is and thus not able to promise to listen, change or stay true even to his current wife. Fred is dead and just isn't bright enough to have realised he should stop moving yet.

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