Liquid Bomb Plot - It Was Real, But Was It "Imminent"?

The British authorities have charged 11 of those detained in the "Liquid Bomb Plot" which brought trans-Atlantic air travel to a grinding halt without a single explosion. Hype and fear did their job for them with nary a martyr in sight. However, at last we have an official statement confirming that materials to make explosives were found, along with papers on bomb making.

The briefing by police and prosecutors lasted less than eight minutes, but provided more information than had been released in the 11 days since the alleged plot was first disclosed and air travel out of Britain was thrown into turmoil.

They said investigators had found bomb-making materials — including hydrogen peroxide and electrical components — and seized more than 400 computers and 200 cell phones in nearly 70 searches.

More than 8,000 items used for data storage, such as compact discs, DVDs and memory sticks, were reported found. Maps of Afghanistan, suicide notes from willing terrorists and books on explosives also were seized, officials said.

"We have also found a number of video recordings — these are sometimes referred to as martyrdom videos," said Assistant Deputy Commissioner Peter Clarke, who heads the Metropolitan Police's anti-terrorism unit. "This has all given us a clearer picture of the alleged plot."

According to dates given by prosecutors, the plot could have begun last year.

...In all, eight people were charged with conspiracy to commit murder and preparing acts of terrorism. One person, a 17-year-old, was charged with possession of articles that could be used to prepare a terrorist act and two people were charged with failing to disclose information that could help prevent a terrorist act.

I will admit to having been initially sceptical about the plot, thinking it could have been yet another fiasco involving either wannabes like in Miami or just plain crap intelligence like Forest Gate. I was wrong in that initial scepticism, however my later misgivings still stand - it is by no means clear that the plot was as "imminent" or as apocalyptic as the hype from both the British and (in particular) American governments has suggested.

Several of those arrested didn't even have passports and a cloud of "confession under torture" has been thrown over the evidence stemming from Pakistan's arrest of one alleged conspirator. The trials, when they eventually occur, will reveal whether the two administrations created a panic for political purposes - but don't expect those trials to be anytime in the next six months. By then most will have forgotten the exact circumstances surrounding the original panic.

Even so, there are a couple of immediate items of blowback from the hype. One is that the British security forces are furious with their American counterparts and their political masters for leaking like seives when it suited the White House's agenda. The other is that this particular round of panic-mongering, coming so soon after several damp-squib plots which were similiarly talked up and coming at a time when it was clearly politically advantageous for both Bush and Blair, seems to have finally broken the back of the "fearing fear itself" era.