Autonomy Dangers for Iraq

The leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq is calling for an autonomous federal region to be made out of the whole of Southern Iraq - with only four days to go until the crucial deadline for producing a constitution is passed. He is being backed in his call for autonomy by the head of the Badr militiamen.

Sunni Arabs, dominant under Saddam Hussein, other minorities and secular Shi'ites wary of religious rule have been opposing the idea of a constitution that would allow southern Shi'ites the kind of autonomy now enjoyed de facto by Kurds in the north.

"Federalism has to be in all of Iraq. They are trying to prevent the Shi'ites from enjoying their own federalism," said Hadi al-Amery, head of the Badr movement, a militia organization formed by SCIRI when it was fighting Saddam from Iranian exile.

"What have we got from the central government but death?"

And what a careful choice of words - federalism - designed to play well to Americans and Europeans alike, who are used to benign forms of federal or even devolved government. But careful, these are the same SCIRI and Bard who were so heavy handed in removing the mayor of Baghdad just the other day. Peaceful proponents of federal government? I think not.

But does anyone really think it would end there?

Imagine a Kurdish autonomous North, with oil reserves and speculate how long it would be before they began making heightened calls and terrorist actions to carve out a piece of Turkey to add to their nascent nation. Then, Turkey and fellow NATO ally the US could come into serious diplomatic conflict. Not good.

Imagine a Shiite autonomous South, with oil reserves and speculate how long before SCIRI and the Badr militia took their entire region into the Islamic Republic of Iran. Equally not good.

Finally, that leaves a rump of Iraq, the mainly Sunni portion, without much of anything except the heaviest war damage, as yet unreconstructed, and enough of a three-way population to ensure intercine feuding and civil war for generations. Still not good.

Let us make no mistake about it - Kurds and Shia are not truly asking for federalism, they have partition on their minds. Partition is not good for the stability of the region.