Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Counting Hillary out

by shamanic

Okay, so even though I haven't been writing here with any kind of reliable schedule the past few days, I want to make it abundantly clear that I do read the internets and watch the news, and the tendency on the part of the blogosphere to begin discounting Hillary Clinton's ability to win the Democratic nomination have me surprised and puzzled.

Folks, it's Hillary Clinton. Backed by Bill Clinton. Near as I can tell, her strategy has been to expend resources and capitalize on delegate rich big states and ignore the smaller prizes all along. As a Democratic resident of one of those smaller prizes, I'm personally sick to death of this strategy in Democratic candidates, but I think the idea that a few weeks of small state losses will be fatal to Clinton's ambitions is wrong.

It seems like the networks are generally agreeing that Obama now has a delegate lead after a number of lop sided small state victories. He's earned it. His strategy of going after every possible vote even in all those places that typical candidates forget about is a necessary one for a candidacy that was certainly insurgent, but he'd better keep his head in the game.

Clinton is in no way out of this. She's in it through August, and I have to tell you: if Howard Dean himself walked onto my porch today to ask me to be a Democratic super delegate, I'd laugh in his face. These people are going to be waterboarded by the Clinton machine. Genital electrodes, people. The strong arming and deal making that will happen between candidates and super delegates will be legend in the Democratic Party for generations. You couldn't pay me to be one.

Obama will keep racking up victories in the little places, but if he can't get himself pretty damn close to 50% in Ohio and 40% in Texas, it'll only take him so far. Clinton's in this to win this, as she says. Don't count her out.

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