Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Raw data & maybe a little analysis

by shamanic

So that was a primary battle! And a really exciting one at that, so let's jump into a little raw data and cook it slowly, shall we?

Vote totals (from TPM, with 95% reporting): Dems, 275,483. Republicans, 226,640.

Leader margin: Hillary Clinton ended the night with +7,651 votes over second-place Obama. John McCain ended the night with +12,780 votes over second-place Mitt Romney.

The GOP walks out of New Hampshire with a very muddled field. McCain, who brings in independents, will have a very hard time in South Carolina, where Huckabee is strong and issues like immigration sit top of mind. I expect McCain to do well in Michigan, which will be Romney's last stand. A down-ballot finish should end Romney's campaign, leaving McCain and Huckabee to duke it out, unless Giuliani figures out a way to make something happen, which looks doubtful.

The Democrats, on the other hand, leave New Hampshire with two very strong front-runners who will have the energy and resources to really wage this campaign. As a partisan for one candidate, it would have been neat and tidy for New Hampshire to deal a knock out blow to HRC, but I think we're in for a better campaign this way, and the eventual nominee will have been through some tough spots. All the better for the general election.

Both sides present really exciting distinctions in candidate substance and style, and this is really anybody's ball game at this point. Gonna be a heck of a primary season, whichever candidate or party you're backing. Buckle up.

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