Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Obama and liberal chumps

As I stated in April, I don't want to be the chump in the Democratic coalition, and chumpmanship is determined by the coalitions formed by winning and losing primary candidates.
I am part of a faction within a much larger coalition. The distribution of power between the factions that dominate the Democratic Party is in flux on a day to day basis, but I want to move my party closer to my policy positions and outlook on the major issues of the day....I don't want to be a chump, but I believe that there is a risk that the netroots and other self-identifying over educated liberals will be the chumps in the Democratic Party coalition....Tim F at Balloon Juice has a great succinct summary of basic party organizational theory as he comments on the current Republican coalition:
" If the party wants to keep its coalition and wield power at the same time, somebody has to be the chump."
Assuming that the DMR poll is the closest to accurate poll, and the internal crosstabs are closely accurate and Big Tent Democrat's calculations are correct, then liberals are the chump in Obama's coalition and thus the Democratic coalition for at least 2008 to 2010.
So Obama gets 40% from 45% (assuming he gets at least 40% of GOP "Dem" caucus goers) and 27% of the 55% Dem Dem caucusgoers. Let's do the math:

0.4 × 0.45 = 18. 0.27 × 0.55 = 14.8.

Ergo, the MAJORITY of Obama's support in Iowa does NOT come from Democratic voters. It comes from Republicans and Independents. That is what the DMR poll tells us.
If Obama wins Iowa, he likely wins the nomination (something screwy about our process, but that is another rant for another point in the election cycle) and if he behaves like a typical person and is consistent in his behaviors, he'll favor the coalition that brought him into power. And that coalition and past behavioral patterns are not friendly to liberals.

No comments: