Sadr's Pronouncement in Najaf

The Associated Press and Chicago Tribune is reporting that Moqutada Sadr has issued a statement to his followers that encourages active combat operations against the foreign military forces in Iraq.

""You, the Iraqi army and police forces, don't walk alongside the occupiers, because they are your archenemy," the statement said. Its authenticity could not be verified......"God has ordered you to be patient in front of your enemy, and unify your efforts against them — not against the sons of Iraq,"

This statement could be an innocuous statement reflecting the widespread sentiment among both the Sunni Arab and the Shi'ite Arab populations that attacks against US and UK forces are acceptable. In this case the JAM [formerly known as the Mahdi Army] will continue to do what they have been doing --- lying low, conducting minor harassment operations against US forces, and preserving their strength for a full scale civil war.

There is a lower probability event that this is an action initiation statement. If we remember late March and early April of 2004 when the first Sadrist revolt took place, Sadr was being boxed in. The CPA was attempting to serve its murder warrant, and his movement's mass communication system was under serious attack. Yesterday, Cernig noted that the Sadrists are having internal discipline and cohesion problems and that elements are under attack by US forces.

If some of the hardest of the hard-line JAM forces take this as an action step without significant support from the other Sadrists followers, a three-for one deal could be achieved. Sadr gets rid of a troublesome faction and recentralizes control of his militias, his nationalistic credibility is reinforced, and the hanging sword of Damocles is again brandished against the US supply lines between Kuwait and Baghdad. Thees supply lines are two highways and a couple of secondary roads that can be cut with motivated light infantry supported by engineers who know how to drop bridges. If they are cut, the US Army grinds to a halt. During the April 2004 revolt, the US Army was within 48 hours of running out of supplies for Baghdad, so this threat is real.

I think that this scenario is a fairly low probability scenario at this time, and the most likely intent of Sadr's statement is to reflect current reality and public opinions, but this is something to keep an eye on.