Carnage In Tal Afar Is Bad News For Surge

Maverick commander Col. H.R. McMaster was lauded by many (including myself) back in the summer of 2005 when he went against what was then standard doctrine by pioneering the so-called "oil spot" strategy and succeeded in largely driving Al Qaeda out of their stronghold in Tal Afar. McMaster is now a part of Gen. Petreaus' "dream team" of radical thinkers who are trying to make the same strategy, aka "the surge", work in Baghdad.

What must he be thinking as he reads todays news?

Shiite militants and police enraged by massive truck bombings in Tal Afar went on a revenge spree against Sunni residents in the northwestern town Wednesday, killing as many as 60 people, officials said.

The gunmen began roaming Sunni neighborhoods in the city, shooting at residents and homes, according to police and a local Sunni politician.

Ali al-Talafari, a Sunni member of the local Turkomen Front Party, said the Iraqi army had arrested 18 policemen accused of being involved after they were identified by the Sunni families targeted. But he said the attackers included Shiite militiamen.

He said more than 60 Sunnis had been killed, but a senior hospital official in Tal Afar put the death toll at 45, with four wounded.

The hospital official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to security concerns, said the victims were men between the ages of 15 and 60, and they were killed with a shot to the back of the head.

The killing was only stopped when Army troops moved in. The entire Tal Afar police force is now confined to barracks and is to be replaced by police sent from Mosul.

As Steve M. notes today, the apparent 2005 success in Tal Afar comprised a major part of a speech by Bush last March (he's always at least an entire Freidman behind the Iraqi curve). Bush said that one of the most important elements of the Tal Afar story was that they had succeeded in building "a professional police force that all sides could have confidence in." It was a major bolster for the claim that "as they stand up, we will stand down."

But all that was pre-Samarra. Now, Tal Afar gives us a worrying look at what will happen in the long term no matter how successful the Baghdad "surge" is. The bad guys have simply lain low or moved to outlying areas to continue their killings - deaths in the areas around Baghdad are sharply up since the surge began, counterbalancing any reduction in violence in the capital itself. And it also points to another development in the time since Col. McMaster did so well bucking what was then received wisdom - that even if every Al Qaeda member magically disappeared tomorrow, Iraq would still be a quagmire where US troops have to attempt the impossible, policing a civil war.