North Korea's October Surprise

The uber-rightwing commentators at National Review are all over the North Korean nuke test, setting out the GOP spin early with a flurry of statements and teasers for later punditspeak.

They have the Bush statement:

THE PRESIDENT: Last night the government of North Korea proclaimed to the world that it had conducted a nuclear test. We're working to confirm North Korea's claim. Nonetheless, such a claim itself constitutes a threat to international peace and security. The United States condemns this provocative act. Once again North Korea has defied the will of the international community, and the international community will respond.

This was confirmed this morning in conversations I had with leaders of China, and South Korea, Russia, and Japan. We reaffirmed our commitment to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, and all of us agreed that the proclaimed actions taken by North Korea are unacceptable and deserve an immediate response by the United Nations Security Council.

The North Korean regime remains one of the world's leading proliferator of missile technology, including transfers to Iran and Syria. The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States, and we would hold North Korea fully accountable of the consequences of such action.

The United States remains committed to diplomacy, and we will continue to protect ourselves and our interests. I reaffirmed to our allies in the region, including South Korea and Japan, that the United States will meet the full range of our deterrent and security commitments.

Threats will not lead to a brighter future for the North Korean people, nor weaken the resolve of the United States and our allies to achieve the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Today's claim by North Korea serves only to raise tensions, while depriving the North Korean people of the increased prosperity and better relations with the world offered by the implementation of the joint statement of the six-party talks. The oppressed and impoverished people of North Korea deserve that brighter future.

Thank you.

Which appears to leave open the possibility of a military option, although that appears to be restricted by a pledge to have full UN Security Council backing for any actions.

Then they have the statement from Mitch McConnell (whom they bill as future Senate Majority Leader):

“Though it has not yet been confirmed as a nuclear test, this is a confrontational move designed only to destabilize the region. This test should demonstrate to other members of the United Nations Security Council, particularly those in North Korea’s neighborhood, that a stronger stance is necessary to restore stability and protect the region and the world from this dangerous regime.”

And an absolute cracker from House Majority Leader John Boehner:

"The North Korean government's claim that it has tested a nuclear weapon is a desperate and dangerous provocation. The United States can not afford to stand idly by as rogue regimes flout international treaties and threaten America and our allies.

"It is critical that we support President Bush and our diplomats as they work with other members of the international community to demand North Korea's immediate disarmament. And we must work swiftly to ensure that the North Korean government is not supplying or shipping its technology beyond its borders. We cannot tolerate nuclear weaponry in the hands of rogue regimes or terrorist organizations that threaten the international community.

"This reckless move by North Korea, coupled with their attempted missile test in early July, highlights the importance of a U.S. missile defense shield capable of protecting America against madmen with weapons of mass destruction. It is time for Democrats to recognize the need for missile defense technologies and abandon their long-standing policy of voting against missile defense programs. It is now clear that such a position would weaken America's national defense and put Americans in danger."

That should earn him a few all-expenses paid golf trips. It manages to push a multi-million boondoggle bit of cost-plus-pork military contracting which will only work, at best, 25% of the time while simultaneously putting a new and topical angle on the spin that Dems are soft on national security.

Then, in time-honored weaselling "a reader emails" Jonah Goldberg style, we have this:

Jonah,

I certainly agree that NK's nuke represents a failure of US policy. That policy has been to rely on the UN and "multilateral" engagement. This is the same policy we are using with respect to Iran. That will also fail. (I suspect that the American electorate will real soon become *very* frustrated with Bush's approach to Iran.)

However, the NK development presents Bush with a strategic opportunity. He can now say that multilateral negotiations that are ultimately predicated on the sanity or trustworthiness of America's enemies are simply insufficient to stop a rogue state from getting a nuke. "We tried that road, and it did not work." And after this morning, who could argue?

Bush is now free to abandon these useless multilaterial dances, and go right to where I believe he knows he must ultimately go: US enforcement of the peace. If he reasserts the Bush doctrine, and if the GOP ruthlessly draws the distinction between that doctrine and the "let's-retreat-to-Okinawa" party, they win next month.

If they don't, then our serious efforts to deal with an incipient nuclear crisis or holocaust will be hamstrung by unserious and juvenile Dems controlling the House.

My best,

Bush doesn't seem inclined to take Jonah's reader's advice - but that actually doesn't matter to the uber-right. The important thing is that they believe he could if he wanted to.

The reason he can't, as pointed out by Fester in an email, is that the U.S. has 5.5. active duty divisions. 2 of those are in Iraq, 1.5 are resting from Iraq and 1.5 are getting ready to go back to Iraq. 0.5 divisions are in South Korea. [Correction: That should read "5.5 heavy divisions - Armored/Heavy Mech Infantry - are on active duty". Thanks Fester!] There's another 2 divisions worth of equipment stockpiled there but no spare bodies to man them. Somehow, the uber-right will turn that lack into the fault of the UN and the Dems too. However, it doesn't matter that the Army is incapable of acting. The political mileage is more important to the GOP and is a ready-made opportunity to spin and to distract from Bush's disasters in the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Given the fast and glib spin which is appearing as if it had been carefully written ages ago, I have to ask. Is this the "October Surprise" that Rove promised the GOP when he told them all they should run on national security despite the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan? If so, how long ago did the administration know this was coming and exactly what did they do to head it off, knowing that it was a disaster for world stability but a gift-horse for re-election races?