Afghanistan: Trajectories Of Occupation

On Saturday, Donald Rumsfield put forward the assertion that Afghanistan, after five years of American occupation (or as Rummie prefers - the "post-battle phase"), is looking positive. That "there are many promising indicators" and "the trajectory is a hopeful and promising one".

Rumsfield bases these assertions on a careful use of statistics for security, education, healthcare and economy. It is easy to suggest an upward trajectory when you're talking about a nation that was already one of the two poorest on the planet and which was then bombed even flatter. "It is so poor we can't even tell how poor it is", said one noted economist. When you've hit rock bottom the only way really is up.

But he neglects to mention that the majority of road building has been so that occupation forces can move quickly between major cities rather than to serve the Aghan people.

Or that to secure the services of local tribal police, which he glibly includes in Afghan security figures, the occupiers have to outbid the Taliban for their services.

He moves forecast economic growth from 17% to 20% all by his lonesome knowing full well that, psychologically, it sounds a lot better with a two in front instead of a one and ignores the fact that such a forecast ignores the drug trade and that policies of poppy eradication could depress the Afghani GDP by 6% or more (the drug trade accounts for up to 60% of Afghanistan's entire GDP).

He ignores the truth about reconstruction delays - that corruption and graft as well as lack of planning by the occupying powers have led to failed targets across the board, including in education and healthcare. (Out of 286 schools USAid had intended to build by the end of 2004, it had completed only eight.)

The same problems reduce the amount of revenue the government recieves to a measly $300 million - tax collectors will usually take a (lower) bribe instead of collecting what is due. Government revenues total just 5.4 percent of GDP, the least of any country with data - and the provinces that give least receive least, leading to rampant security problems and a non-existant government presence.

(Just as a comparator - FEMA spent $300 million, the entire Afghan government's revenue, on a ghost-town of mobile homes sitting in a field in Alabama.)

“Levels of poverty, hunger, ill health, illiteracy, and gender inequality put Afghanistan near the bottom of every global ranking,” writes Barnett R. Rubin of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Rumsfield also ignores, as he always seems to and always denies he does, the opinions of the commanders on the ground. NATO's top commander in Afghanistan says the nation has reached a "tipping point":

Gen. David Richards, a British officer who commands NATO's 32,000 troops here, warned in an interview with The Associated Press that if life doesn't get better over the winter, most Afghans could switch sides.

"They will say, 'We do not want the Taliban but then we would rather have that austere and unpleasant life that that might involve than another five years of fighting,'" Richards said.

Afghanistan is going through its worst bout of violence since the U.S.-led invasion removed the former Taliban regime from power five years ago. The Taliban has made a comeback in the south and east of the country and is seriously threatening Western attempts to stabilize the country after almost three decades of war.

"If we collectively ... do not exploit this winter to start achieving concrete and visible improvement," then some 70 percent of Afghans could switch sides, Richards told The Associated Press.

Significantly , it was at the five year mark that the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan began to go seriously wrong, ending with the wheels falling off after nine years. Pakistan played its part then and still has its hand in destabilization.

Of course, Rumsfield's blatant spin went by without hardly a challenege - events in North Korea ensured Rummie's op-ed will be mostly unscrutinized. But it seems that when it comes to trajectories of occupations, Rumsfield is an occupational liar.