The Great GOP Fracture

"From Wall Street to Main Street, the small-government, pro-business mainstay of the Republican Party appears to be growing disaffected with a party it sees as focused on social issues at its expense."

So says the Washington Post in an article that points up the most serious fracture line in the GOP - deeply Christian social conservatives vs everybody else. Three quotes from the article suffice to show the depth of the divide.

"I'm inclined to support the Republican Party, but the question becomes, how much other stuff do I have to put up with to maintain that identification?" asked Andrew A. Samwick, a Dartmouth College economics professor who until recently was chief economist of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.

"The potential for high-minded policy reforms to fix entitlements and spur growth and prosperity has degenerated into a hopeless morass... A big part of the base is pretty disappointed, is this irreparably damaging anything? Probably not yet. But this has been a dreary political springtime," Republican economist Lawrence Kudlow wrote recently on the National Review's Web site

"Social conservatives expect their agenda to win out," said Gary L. Bauer, a former presidential candidate and president of American Values, a conservative religious advocacy group.

The current brewing storm over stem cell research is likely to provide the bitterest battleground for those on both sides of this fracture line. Already, 50 Republican members of the House have voted for a bill to expand federal financing for embryonic stem cell research, defying a veto threat from President Bush. Mrs. Reagan, who became a strong backer of stem cell research as her iconic husband struggled with Alzheimer's disease, telephoned fellow Republicans this week urging a yes vote.

A recent poll by Republicans in Republican areas show that 66% of those living in those areas support embryonic stem cell research. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll last week, 57 percent of the people polled said Bush had different priorities for the country from their own. Only 35 percent said he shared their priorities.

Yet Bush, Bill Frist and Tom DeLay represent a strong bastion in defence of social conservatives on this issue. The latter two are firmly in the pockets of the Christian right and although Bush has made speeches in the past that show he will not always be cowed by the likes of James Dobson, in this case he seems to be having one of his bull-headed "I make no mistakes" episodes. He is threatening to veto any bill that expands embyonic stem cell research beyond the lines he has already allowed even though those lines are contaminated by mouse feeder cells and so, although great for research, they are useless for actual therapuetic treatments.

Denying this expansion of useable lines could cut Americans (and American biotech companies) out of the greatest medical advances of the decade. Without a doubt, the business lobby are backing the moderates on this - they fear being left behind in a technology race with Europe and Asia, one which could easily become to the next 20 years what the microchip has been to the last 20.

It will be particularly interesting to see what Senators Arlen Specter, Republican of Pennsylvania, and Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa have to say at a scheduled news conference today. Both are sponsors of an identical Senate bill. Moments after the House vote, the Senate sponsors wrote to the Republican leader, Bill Frist, urging him to put it on the agenda.

Lastly, I want to float a possibility. I feel it is possible that business interests, wishing to emasculate the Christian right and reclaim the GOP, may have been the lobbying power behind the moderate "compromise" over the fillibuster. Certainly there must have been something more than pure wellwishing for the traditions of the Senate involved to make even moderate Republicans and Democrats break ranks. I just don't believe in altruistic politicians - I always wonder where the money is. Is this an outrageous proposition or is it just realism? Does anyone have any evidence that would back up my hunch?

Update 9.10am Central

It looks like Harold Fineman has much the same thoughts on the split in the GOP, and sees the fillibuster compromise as just as much of a symptom of the split as the brewing stem cell storm.

Many other Republican senators, who stayed away from the filibuster-judges deal for various reasons, were relieved that rules of the Senate were saved and that religious conservatives were, in essence, told to shove it.

Fineman thinks voters:

could turn against the GOP if they think the party is sacrificing the American tradition of pragmatism and respect for scientific progress – on, say, stem-cell research – in favor of religious fundamentalism, however sincere. Take a look at some of the key supporters of stem-cell research: Nancy Reagan, to name one – not to mention corporate executives who don’t want to see research money and energy drift away to other countries. Two religions are in collision, one of them secular and scientific, the other Biblical.

In such a battle the secularists will always have the most money, the Biblicists the most organised cadre. When looking at US politics it's a safe bet to say that money trumps conviction, every time.

Another Update 10.15am Central

John Cole, a thoughtful Republican who has often made me pause and think about my position, has this to say (in rant mode) about the recent events on the Hill:

So, wingnuts, you have set the stage. I understand I am either with you or against you, and you are unwilling to advance any legislation I think is sensible, and you are unwilling to to think twice about things I dislike. I get it- you want my vote and you want me to shut..up. I get it- with you or against you.

But let me warn you- the Democrats just don't seem that damned scary anymore. You people have me to the point that if it were 2004 all over again, and I knew what I know now, I don't know if I necessarily would have pulled the lever for that two-faced weasel Kerry, but I would have found it EXCEPTIONALLY difficult to vote for Bush.

Wow! Now THAT's a sign of a fracture of epic proportions!