BBC - "New Stage" in Iraqi Insurgency

From the BBC:

The recent wave of attacks in Iraq appears indicative of a new stage in the insurgency.

a spate of attacks in the last week indicates that we may be encountering a new spike closely related to political manoeuvrings in Baghdad, as insurgents try to destabilise the new government.

The sophistication and scale of some of the attacks appears to be increasing, including the use of tandem bombings, when one device is timed to go off soon after another as rescuers rush to the scene.

There have been military-style assaults, such as on the Abu Ghraib prison.

There also appears to be a continuing trend towards the targeting of ethnic communities, as witnessed by Wednesday's attack on the Kurds in Irbil.

Gordon Corera, BBC News security correspondent, also says that fresh de-Baathification moves from Shia ministers and the possiblity of Kurdish armed militias being used against Suuni insurgents instead of security forces could yet blow the top of even the current level of peace in Iraq. He believes that the current strength of the security forces would not be enough on it's own to prevent even greater sectarian tension and armed conflict - a worry that the US military must also share.

Recently, the Pentagon has had to lower its estimate for the number of Iraqi security forces - because the US had been counting police and soldiers who were technically on the payroll rather than those actually reporting for duty, and had been counting those who were not yet fully equipped.

One military planner admitted that tens of thousands still included might still actually be absent.

The challenge after January's election was always going to be turning a single event into a cascade of restored order and thus quelling the insurgency. It is still far from certain that the challenge can be met and much of the new Iraqi government seems set on making it as hard a task as possible.