Pakistan - Post Election Analysis

By Empty

We're very pleased to present this guest-post, an analysis of Pakistan post-elections, by Empty of Empty's Corner. Regards, Cernig

The elections were reasonably free and fair as I had assumed they would be. I never quite understood the somewhat hysterical insistence by normally well informed individuals like Ahmad Rashid that there would be "massive" vote rigging. The reason the military had allowed Benazir and Nawaz Sharif back into the country was because they needed a partnership with the feudals. As I have written earlier there are only two real power centers in Pakistan, the military and the feudals (some include the bureaucracy as a third power center - I don't). The military was clearly unable to meet the challenges posed by the jihadis without the support of the feudals. Their support of The War Against Terror (tm) had resulted in their involvement with disappearances of individuals - tactics that had previously mainly been associated with civilian governments in Pakistan - which had led to genuine opposition from civil society in the form of the lawyers movement.

By allowing the exiled politicians back into the country the military was suing for peace. The elections were the mechanism by which the feudals were going to elect the team which would partner with the army. It would have been counter-productive from the military's standpoint if they had then proceeded to rig the elections. The results of the elections have been reasonably satisfactory for the military. As can be seen from the graphical representation of the election results, outside of the PML-Q the PPP has emerged as the only truly national parties with significant representations from all four provinces.


And the PPP is not too anxious to bring back a judiciary which seemed on the way to voiding the ordinance that Musharraf had signed dropping the corruption cases against the late and current leaders of the PPP. Which means the feudals and the military are united against the lawyers' movement. The PML-N, because of Nawaz Sharif's personal antagonism towards Musharraf, might have taken some anti-military stance. But despite the significant presence of PML-N in the National Assembly it has become a provincial party - albeit from the most significant province. Almost all the National Assembly seats for PML-N are from Punjab. In the provincial assemblies I couldn't find a trace of PML-N in the Sindh and Balochistan provinces and only a few seats in the Frontier province.

Finally, while I do not equate the military with Musharraf. If the military as an institution needed to sacrifice Musharraf they would not hesitate - though based on tradition they would try and ease him out in the most graceful manner possible. However, even if the PPP had wanted to impeach Musharraf it is difficult to see how they could garner the two thirds votes needed to do that. So, all indications are that Musharraf will remain - at least for now.

The really bad news about the elections was the low level of voter participation. Compared to the rather tumultuous election campaigns of the past the current season was not exceptionally violent. The lack of enthusiasm of the people of Pakistan for their rulers - both civilian and military - does not bode well for the future. As long as people believe they have a voice they do not turn to violence. It is only when they see avenues of expression blocked that they turn to more desperate measures. The coming years are not going to be economically comfortable as a global recession will have a severe impact on the poorer countries of the world. This will be a time of maximum opportunity for strife. If the people feel that the government feels their pain they will be less likely to take matters into their own hands. The election turnout seems to suggest that their faith in the processes of government is limited.

But there are also several positive messages from the elections. The first is of course the rout of the religious parties - the MMA. They were swept from power in both Balochistan and the Frontier. And the rout was a lot worse than the loss of seats. If you look at the detailed election results you will find that not only did they lose - they didn't even come in second! Furthermore, they lost often to people they had previously won against. The return to power of the ANP can only be viewed as positive both from a Pakistani point of view and from a US/NATO point of view.

The MMA had been providing cover for the Taliban in Afghanistan. The ANP has a secular and progressive history. They will have no love for the Taliban. As Pashtoon nationalists they will also be in a good position to collaborate with the Pashtun majority in Afghanistan. The PPP which holds the second largest number of seats in the Frontier Assembly has promised the ANP their cooperation and I think they will keep to their word. The PPP has bigger fish to fry elsewhere.

The second is the election of independents. According to this wikepedia entry, 3 independents were elected in the 2002 elections to the National Assembly. This year there are 28 independents elected to the National Assembly. Even excluding the ones in the Frontier areas where most candidates did not have a party affiliation that is still a healthy increase. I have no idea about the character of these candidates. However, just the fact that they were able to successfully mount independent runs says something good about the vitality of electoral politics.

Finally, in the National Assembly there are seats reserved for women. However, this time there were quite a few (by Pakistan standards) women contesting general seats - 64 for the National Assembly and 116 for the provincial assemblies. Most of them lost but there were still quite a few that won. That is definitely a positive sign. Change in Pakistan will depend to a great extent on the participation of women in the political process. One of the good things that has happened under Musharraf is the rise of civil society organizations in which women play a substantial role. More participation of women in politics can only be a good thing.

In the final analysis I am cautiously optimistic. Superficially the election results are a return to the status-quo ante 2002. However much has happened in the last six years to inform the centers of power. Hopefully they will have learned something and Pakistan will not return to the downward spiral of those years.

Pakistan - Charges In Bhutto Death Investigation

By Cernig

Pakistan has formally charged Tehrik e-Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and four other who also remain uncaptured with the assassination of PPP leader Benazir Bhutto.

But they haven't, apparently, formally charged two people who they have in actual custody and who supposedly confessed to their part in the crime.

Weird.

If I were a cynical sort, I'd say they'd deliberately charged the people least likely to ever stand up in court, with evidence and counter-evidence, while dropping a pair of possibly-tortured dupes down the memory hole.

INS Kitty Hawk?

By Cernig

The Weekly Standard's Reuben F. Johnson has an interesting piece today. He says the Bush administration are considering giving the aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk, due to be decommissioned this year, to the Indian Navy for free.

The Indians, however, would have to make a committment to purchase 65 of the newest model Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to arm the Kitty Hawk with. As Johnson points out, this would sink the Indian-Russian $1.5 billion deal to purchase the refitted Admiral Gorshkov which is so far behind schedule and it's attendant deal to buy Mig's to operate from the Gorshkov.

If true--and if New Delhi accepts--this can do more than just sink the Russian carrier deal and the MiG-29K contract. The Indian Air Force (IAF) are deep in the throes of a tender to purchase almost 200 new fighter aircraft, with Boeing and RSK-MiG both in the field of six contenders. An order of 200 fighter airplanes is unheard of--larger than any such export sale in more than 20 years. In an era where sales of 12, 20, or 40 fighters are more common, this is the PowerBall Lotto of export competitions.

If the Indian Navy decide to take on the F/A-18E/Fs, it makes logistical sense for the IAF to do the same and the competition for this massive sale would probably be over for all of the other competitors before it gets started. This would be a huge blow to the fortunes of RSK-MiG, who are bidding an advanced, developed MiG-29 model they have now re-labeled the MiG-35. It could make it hard for the famous Russian planemaker to stay in the military aircraft market.

Just last December Boeing placed $1 billion worth of outsourced production with India's HAL. To run for 10 years, this contract will have the Indians building portions of the F/A-18E/F, the Chinook CH-47 helicopter, and other Boeing platforms. This incentive--plus the carrier deal--could make the Boeing Super Hornet the proverbial offer that is too good to pass up.

Moscow's reaction is likely to be less than joyful.

That's an almost British use of understatement. Russia would be furious and out for some kind of revenge for the stolen deal - and even more livid if their largest indigenous military aircraft manufacturer collapses thereby. Even if the U.S. would just be offering a sweeter version of the deal Russia has already offered.

It's an illuminating look at arms deals as foreign policy - and a moments thought presents some downstream consequences which show why using arms deals as such a blunt FP intrument isn't always a good idea. Russia, for one, is going to become far more recalcitrant over every issue from Iran to missile defense to Kosovo to free trade. Johnson nails it: "All of which will look just like what it is--a return to Cold War behavior, as well as the thinking that is behind it all." I'm left uncertain from reading his piece whether he thinks that would be a good thing or not.

But there's also a small matter of regional inter-relations to consider. That the U.S. will be seen by everyone in the region as cynically arming both Indian and Pakistan in their own arms race is not going to make America more trusted. Others may look elsewhere for a hoped-for edge over ubiquitous American equipment, pushing them further towards Europe, Russia or China.

That the Bush administration is considering giving away a Navy carrier taxpayers have already bought and paid for long ago to provide billions in corporate welfare to Boeing may make short-term sense to them, as well as being a golden opportunity to throw a spanner in Putin's works - but I'm rather worried about what the long-term tail of such a deal would be.

New Pakistan Coalition To Reinstate Chief Justice

By Cernig

To the surprise of very few, the two winners of Pakistan's elections have agreed to a coalition government - and are saying one of the new government's first acts will be to reinstate sacked Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said he had agreed "a common agenda" with the party of assassinated opposition leader Benazir Bhutto.

He had been in talks with Ms Bhutto's widower, Asif Zardari, the new leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Such a government could put renewed pressure on President Pervez Musharraf.

"We will work together to form the government in the centre and in the provinces," Mr Sharif, head of the Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N), said at a joint news conference with Mr Zardari.

He said the two parties had agreed that the country's chief justice, sacked by President Musharraf in November, should be immediately reinstated.

What a way to shake Musharraf from his podium. Chaudry is on record as saying he thinks Musharraf's re-election was illegal, and the prospect of his court ruling thus was the real reason behind his dismissal in the first case. Such a move not only shows up Musharraf's clampdown in the wake of that dismissal for what it was - an entirely selfish move to hold power. It also paves the way for parliament and judiciary to act with common purpose in unseating Musharraf once and for all.

Shortly before the coalition press conference, Chaudry had spoken to lawyer supporters on a smuggled mobile phone - he's still under house arrest.

He told lawyers in Karachi that the recent election result showed that the Pakistani people had "repudiated" President Musharraf and that "unconstitutional measures" taken by him under emergency rule should be reversed.

"Victory is not far off now," he said.

"There are occasions when a nation passes through defining moments and the Pakistani nation is passing through this defining moment now.

"If we lose this opportunity no one can then change the affairs of this nation ever."

Supporters responded to his speech by chanting "go, Musharraf, go!"

Shortly after he spoke, police used tear gas on protesting lawyers in Karachi and there were other demonstrations in Quetta and Lahore.

Both the UK and the US administrations have been backing Musharraf in the wake of the elections, and asking the new coalition government to drop their demands for his resignation and Chaudry's reinstatement. Both have painted themselves into a corner by insisting Musharraf was a staunch ally in the "war on terror", a proposition which has dubious validity at best. McClatchy reported yesterday that there's considerable division inside the Bush administration, however, with the split predictably being along Bush ideologue/career State diplomat lines:

The Bush administration is pressing the opposition leaders who defeated Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to allow the former general to retain his position, a move that Western diplomats and U.S. officials say could trigger the very turmoil the United States seeks to avoid.

U.S. officials, from President Bush on down, said this week that they think Musharraf, a longtime U.S. ally, should continue to play a role, despite his party's rout in parliamentary elections Monday and his unpopularity in the volatile, nuclear-armed nation.

The U.S. is urging the Pakistani political leaders who won the elections to form a new government quickly and not press to reinstate the judges whom Musharraf ousted last year, Western diplomats and U.S. officials said Wednesday. If reinstated, the jurists likely would try to remove Musharraf from office.

Bush's policy of hanging on to Musharraf has caused friction between the White House and the State Department, with some career diplomats and other specialists arguing that the administration is trying to buck the political tides in Pakistan, U.S. officials said.

Officials in the White House and the intelligence community fear that the longer Pakistan remains without a new government, the deeper the gridlock, threatening the progress made in the elections toward greater stability and helping the country's Islamic extremists.

One Western diplomat said, however, that the strategy could backfire if Pakistanis feel betrayed after voting to kick Musharraf from office.

"This is dangerous," said the diplomat.

Shariff and the lawyers, however, have made it clear they aren't going to be dissuaded despite intense US and UK pressure.

an aide to Mr Sharif, who is due to meet today (THURS) with PPP leader, Asif Ali Zardari, confirmed there had been pressure to drop its demand for Mr Chaudhry’s return. “The suggestion has been there from Western countries for some time. In fact it was raised by [a senior British official] when he met Mr Sharif in London. [But] we are not willing to compromise on our stance. We feel it would be against the interest of the Pakistani people.”

This week senior US officials have already met with Mr Sharif and the other leading players in Pakistan’s unfolding political drama, urging an inclusive transition towards democracy. Yesterday morning, a US diplomat based in Lahore spent two hours with Aitzaz Ahsan, leader of the lawyers movement, laying out the US position.

Mr Ahsan, who has been under house arrest for three months, declined to detail the contents of his conversation with the diplomat, but he said: “There is no way other than to reinstate the judges. We are not going to let this pass. We will not let it be accepted as a norm.”

And its highly unlikely that the PPP, which has loudly accused Musharraf of having a hand in Bhutto's death, could survive an about-face on the issue.

Musharraf is, to borrow a cricket term, on a "very sticky wicket". By backing his soft-dictatorship against the democratic will of the Pakistani people, the US and UK tarnish themselves visibly as nations which only give lip service to their ideals - until democracy doesn't suit them.

Update China Hand at American Footprints, a must-read for anyone following Pakistan's continuing political turmoil, has this to say:

The Bush administration is pushing Pakistan into a corner.

It’s not a happy place.

It’s called Musharraf = Shah of Iran territory.

And it really doesn’t have to be that way.

After all, the opposition to Musharraf comes from respectable, clean-shaven democratic, dollar-worshiping moderates, not the bearded religious fanatics of our dark fantasies.

Ineed, the Bush administration and conservative pundits were just as pleased as everyone else when Islamist parties nosedived in the Pakistani elections - but now that it's time to support their favorite local general-in-a-suit, they're rolling out the "ZOMG!! Islamofascists With Nukes!" fearmongering again. As China Hand points out, thereby they create the danger of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

(My thanks to Kat for research, as always)

Ali Eteraz on the Pakistan Elections

By Cernig

Guardian columnist, and our blog-pal, Ali Eteraz has some good analysis on the Pakistan elections.

it looks like Musharraf’s Party (PML-Q) is losing. Will PPP and PML-N strike a deal? If they get 2/3rd of Parliament they are going to impeach Musharraf. Apparently, Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif had lunch and Zardari asked Sharif: “Do you want power?” and Sharif said: “Do you?” Typical. Anyway, Zardari alleges that he said that he wants Musharraf out and an independent judiciary.

...I think the real story of these elections is the Islamist loss (which by the way I said would occur if you look at a couple of posts a few weeks back). There’s definitely been a lot of rigging and a lot of women stayed at home, especially in the NWFP for fear of violence. However, it seems as if the terrorists succeeded in subduing the hardline voters more than any one else. The other interesting thing is that in the NWFP, traditionally the hot-bed of Islamism — this is the place where they previously tried to pass a public morality (hisba) law — the secular ANP Party dominated.

Back in December, Ali was saying that the Islamist electoral threat just wasn't as big as the playstation-paranoids of the Right here in the US wanted it to be.

Ali also has some background information here.

All worth a read.

Update The Times Of London says that Musharraf's supporters, the PML-Q, have conceded defeat and said they are happy to sit on the opposition benches.

Pakistan Election - Media Clampdown

By Cernig

Pakistan went to the polls today, with between 19 and 27 dead in election-related violence, and counting has begun. Musharraf has ordered a media clampdown, preventing all except official government reporting from being broadcast:

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan's private broadcasters are barred from reporting independently on the country's parliamentary elections today after the government imposed curbs on coverage, amid rigging allegations by opposition parties.

``We are being told to report what the government wants us to report,'' Mazhar Abbas, the secretary of the Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists, said in a phone interview. ``We have never ever experienced such harsh restrictions.''

Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority, the government's regulator, yesterday prohibited television stations from reporting progressive results and interviewing candidates until the end of polling at 5 p.m. local time. Channels were also barred from live coverage of political parties, it said in a statement from Malik Mushtaq, chairman of the regulator.

The new rules come after the government ordered all Pakistani news channels off air when President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule on Nov. 3 for six weeks. Today's election is the first nationwide vote since competing private channels were allowed to start broadcasting, ending the government's monopoly over broadcast news.

``It is controlled freedom of the press,'' said Abbas. While television channels violating the new rules risk going off air, some broadcasters will ignore the orders, he said.

Taped! Pakistan Official Admits Elections Rigged

By Cernig

As violence hits Pakistani polling stations and campaign offices - someone wants to discourage voter turnout big style - Human Rights Watch has released a tape it says is the Pakistani Attorney General admitting that the elections will be "massively rigged".

Human Rights Watch said a journalist made the recording during a telephone interview with Attorney General Malik Qayyum when Qayyum took a second call without disconnecting the first, allowing his end of the second conversation to be overheard and recorded.

In the recording, Qayyum, Pakistan's top legal officer, can be heard advising the caller to accept a ticket he is being offered by an unidentified political party for a seat, Human Rights Watch said.

"They will massively rig to get their own people to win," Qayyum said, according to a transcript released by Human Rights Watch. "If you get a ticket from these guys, take it."

The potentially incendiary recording was made the day that elections were announced for Jan. 8, according to Human Rights Watch, which said the Urdu-language recording could be heard on its Web site, www.hrw.org. The polls for the national assembly and four provincial legislatures were postponed until this Monday after large-scale violence ignited by the Dec. 27 assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

The recording was certain to add to widespread fears that the polls will be rigged in favor of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party that supports the authoritarian and hugely unpopular president, Pervez Musharraf, a retired army general who seized power in a 1999 coup.

On Thursday, Musharraf warned the opposition that it must accept the outcome of Monday's voting, without resorting to massive street protests.

"Let there be no doubt that anyone will be allowed to resort to lawlessness in the garb of allegations about rigging in the elections," Musharraf was quoted as telling a seminar of government officials in Islamabad by the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan. "Let this serve as a warning to all those who think they can disturb the peace of the country. They will not be allowed. Do not test the resolve of the government."

"No agitation, anarchy or chaos can be acceptable," he said. "I assure you that the elections will be fair, free, and transparent and peaceful."

There will be no exit polls conducted during the elections tomorrow, a ban imposed by Musharraf that the Bush administration is just fine with despite exit polls being key evidence in previous color-coded revolutions. The head of the organisation the US government has contracted to monitor elections is on record as saying exit polls shouldn't be conducted when they could lead to unwelcome unrest or revolutions.

Pakistan - Election Problems

By Cernig

The kind of violence that Musharraf said would mean a security clampdown if carried out post election by opposition groups is rising pre-election and is aimed at anti-Musharraf parties. 37 have been killed by a suicide car bomb after a rally outside the offices of one PPP candidate.

Elections are on Monday and none of the main parties is expected to gain a clear majority - leaving the prospect of deals to form a coalition majority in parliament wide open.

However, there have been widespread allegations of dirty tricks by pro-Musarraf parties and by election officials to fix the result - maybe even giving his supporters a clear majority. Which is why the ban on exit polls is so interesting:

exit polls have been a crucial ingredient in color-coded revolutions from the Ukraine to Georgia to Kyrgyzstan.

Elections are held, the opposition cries fraud and cites the IRI exit polls as evidence of skullduggery, a big crowd of people stages a sit-in at some big square in the capital, the United States expresses its heartfelt concerns and anxieties for democracy in country X, NGOs provide material support for the protesters so they can keep country X in political limbo, the government finally gives up and quits...etc.

One can understand Musharraf’s desire to short circuit that kind of process at the earliest possible link.

Thus the primary group which carries out election observances on behalf of the US government - the International Republican Institute, famous for its exit polls which were the primary evidence for election skullduggery in the Ukraine and several other places - has pulled out. This left the Bush administration scrambling for a replacement who could help give legitimacy to Musharraf's continued rule.

The U.S. Agency for International Development then reached out to the last name on its list: Democracy International, a small, Bethesda-based consulting firm that does 90 percent of its business with the U.S. government.

The head of DI, Eric Bjornlund, has previously argued that exit polls shouldn't be conducted when they could lead to revolutions. Perfect!

Two Confess To Arming Bhutto Assassin

By Cernig

CNN reports that Pakistani police are claiming a breakthrough in the Bhutto assassination trail.

Two suspects arrested last week confessed to a Pakistani judge Wednesday that they helped arm the suicide bomber blamed for assassinating Benazir Bhutto, an Interior Ministry spokesman told CNN.

The two men -- identified as Hasnain Gul and Rafaqat -- were part of a five-man team behind the former prime minister's assassination, including the suicide bomber, a senior police investigator told CNN.

Both were at the Rawalpindi park where Bhutto was assassinated on December 27 as she left a political campaign rally, said investigator Chaudhry Abdul Majeed.

The other two suspects -- one of them named Karamullah -- are still at large, he said.

The two suspects told the judge in Wednesday's court appearance that they provided the suicide bomber with a house, transportation, a pistol, and the suicide jacket he allegedly used in the attack that killed the opposition leader and nearly two dozen others, Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema said.

Hmmmm. I'd be happier about the provenance of these confessions if Pakistan didn't have such a poor record on torturing detainees.

I'd also be far happier if these confessions weren't simply parroting Pakistani government propaganda.

Mr Gul allegedly told police he had wanted to "avenge" the killing of his close friend during the military raid on the Red Mosque in the capital, Islamabad, in July 2007.

"Their motive for attacking Bhutto was that she was coming to Pakistan at the behest of a foreign power," Mr Abdul Majid said.

Bhutto didn't order the assault on the Red Mosque - Musharraf did. And it was Musharraf's government who first and loudest protested Bhutto's return at US behest, not the Taliban.

Pakistan Elections

By Cernig

A new BBC World Service poll shows Musharraf of Pakistan plumbing depths of unpopularity even Dubya hasn't yet reached.

Only 15% of people asked said they approved of the job he was doing, while 72% disapproved.

That compared with an approval rate of 30% at the end of last year. Three-quarters of the people asked said they would like him to resign.

49% said Musharraf's re-election was illegal and invalid, the same number who aren't optimistic about Pakistan's future. Almost two-thirds of the people questioned said they thought the new parliament should re-instate sacked former chief justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Chaudhry.

Over half of those polled by the BBC think the elections will be rigged or unfairly run. It looks like they have good reason for thinking so.

The report [Bhutto] had with her on the day she died talks of election violence, intimidation and corrupt officials. According to the PPP, nothing has changed.

Senator Enver Beg says more than 100 parliamentary candidates who support President Pervez Musharraf are close relatives of the people who are running the elections, district by district.

"They will use government machinery, government finances and government funds. They will use government transport," he said.

"They have the police under their control. District officials have been transferred in violation of the law. I call this dishonest."

The PPP has filed more than 1,200 complaints with the election commission, but has received virtually no response.


"I'm sorry to say," said Senator Beg, "that the election commission is deaf, dumb and blind. They just take all these complaints and throw them in the dustbin."

...The international pressure group Human Rights Watch says the election commission simply isn't politically impartial.

As the BBC notes, the question isn't really whether the vote will be fair - but whether Pakistanis will accept an unfair vote in the interests of stability or will protest in the inevitable aftermath of accusation and denial.

Update Musharraf is warning the opposition parties to not even squeak.

They should not be under any illusion that they will bring people to the streets after the election. Nothing of that sort will be allowed," Musharraf said in comments at a seminar telecast on Thursday by state-run Pakistan Television.

"In this situation of extremism and terrorism, no agitation, anarchy or chaos can be acceptable."

While continuing to insist that the thing that walks like a duck and quacks like a duck isn't actually a duck:

Opposition parties have accused the government of trying to rig the polls to favor Musharraf's allies and have threatened to launch protests if they feel cheated.

"Don't show arrogance, if you win, and show grace, if you lose, accept the results," Musharraf said, rejecting the opposition's allegations.

"I am conscious of the fact that the elections should be free, fair and transparent and they have to be seen free, fair and transparent and also peaceful. The entire world is watching us," he said.

"I guarantee that these will be free and fair."

He said there could be lower-level tactical irregularities by candidates but the government would not be involved.

Riiiight.

Through the looking glass

By Libby

Often times in the last seven years I've felt like we're living in Orwell's vision but this odd synchronicity feels more like Lewis Carroll. Bin Laden's approval rating in Pakistan has dropped to 24% which about mirrors the approval rating for our bi-partisan Congress and reflecting our president's current approval status, 70% of Pakistanis would love to see Musharraf quit his office.

As I often say, life is funny, but it's not a joke.

Bin Laden, Mullah Omar Sheltering In Pakistan, Says US

By Cernig

Yesterday, a "senior US official" told a whole group of reporters - including journalists from the BBC, AP and Reuters by the looks of it - that both Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar were finding safe haven inside Pakistan. The BBC reports:

The US official, speaking on condition of anonymity in Washington, told reporters:

"There is no question that the iconic leaders of al-Qaeda - (Ayman al-)Zawahiri, Bin Laden... are in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

"We believe that the Taleban's shura (consultation) council leaders led by Mullah Omar reside in Quetta in Pakistan," he said.

The Pakistani government was quick to deny the allegations, saying that if the official was right "he would claim the bounty money, not speak to the media."

However, this isn't the first time that such allegations have been made. The BBC notes that:

Last month, captured Taleban spokesman Muhammad Hanif made similar claims about Mullah Omar's whereabouts, which were rejected by Pakistan.

Mr Hanif said Mullah Omar was protected by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai made similar allegations last year.

So, indeed, have the Indian intelligence services, NATO commanders in Afghanistan and British MI6. The latter were even reported to have provided the address of the ISI safe house where Mullah Omar was staying in Quetta...and his cell-phone number. The Pakistani government has also made a disturbing habit of releasing captured Taliban bigwigs and of doing peace-deals with Taliban commanders in the regions bordering Afghanistan.

Despite all this, the US official - an obviously publicly-known figure who has managed to speak to a gathering of reporters without any of them leaking who he was - also said that the US continues to back Musharraf. According to Reuters:

"There are multiple sources of pressure and instability on Musharraf and the sense here has been what he really needs is a dependable partner to see him through this period and that's been sort of the strategic logic of supporting Musharraf," the U.S. official said.

Musharraf over time has "given us evidence that he is worth that kind of commitment both in terms of the degree to which his forces have taken on al Qaeda in particular, and the extent to which we think he's doing quite well, given the hand he was dealt."

The Bush administration had also been very impressed with Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kayani and considered him a "promising partner," the official said.

Kayani was previously commander of the self-same ISI intelligence agency that has been accused of sheltering Mullah Omar and which was instrumental in setting up the Taliban back in the early '90's.

This may be astonishing naivete, it may be deliberate disregard for the objectives of the Bush administration's War on (Some) Terror - but it's far more likely to be a message to the Pakistani leadership that they must clean their ISI house or ultimately lose US support. The burning question if that is the case, however, will be "why did it take so long for the Bush administration to wake up and smell the coffee?"

Scotland Yard - Bhutto Died From Head injury In Blast

By Cernig

British investigators have concluded their look at the cause of benazir Bhutto's death. The Guardian has the summary report.

In essence, all the evidence indicates that one suspect has fired the shots before detonating an improvised explosive device. At the time of the attack, this person was standing close to the rear of Ms Bhutto's vehicle. The blast caused a violent collision between her head and the escape hatch area of the vehicle, causing a severe and fatal head injury.

The team from Scotland Yard noted that the lack of an autopsy and hosing down of the incident area within an hour of the blast complicated their investigation, but have forwarded this conclusion with a high degree of certainty, working from other evidence. The PPP have refused to accept the findings. "She died from a bullet injury, this was and is our position," said Sherry Rahman, a spokeswoman for Bhutto's party.

They also say Bhutto's death was the work of a lone assassin, who both fired the shots and detonated the bomb which killed her.

However, they were not asked by the Pakistani authorities to investigate who might be responsible for ordering her death, and on that they remain silent. Both the pakistani authorities and the CIA have said that Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, ordered her killing. However, there are considerable reasons to doubt that allegation.

An Unhelpful Double Standard

By Cernig

Just a couple of weeks ago, the general in charge of the Bush adminsitration's missile shield program was in Europe telling Czechs that Iran's ballistic missile testing program proved they were a threat to world stability. It was mostly hype. This week Pakistan tested a ballistic missile able to carry one of the nuclear warheads that nation is known - not suspected - to possess. The Bush administration's reaction showed their double standards - demonizing Iran while giving several free passes to other nations with provably worse records on proliferation and secret nuke building who just happen to be allies.

The United States has said that there’s nothing alarming about Pakistan’s latest missile test but urged all countries in the region to observe their international obligations.

“We’ve seen those reports that the Pakistanis have tested a missile. This I understand is a system as reported that has been tested previously,” State Department Deputy Spokesman Tom Casey said.

“Certainly, again, we want all countries to comply with their international obligations and would not want to see anything done that would destabilise the region,” he said.

Mr Casey maintained that the missile test was “not unique and has, in fact, happened before”.

While the US continues to fail to hold itself and its allies - especially those with highly questionable histories - to a different standard on issues like proliferation, democracy, human rights, backing for terrorism and foreign meddling - it cannot hold any high ground in the world forum. That's an utterly counterproductive obstruction to successful foreign policy and must change.

15 Year Old Boy Arrested, Implicated In Bhutto Plot

By Cernig

The AP reports Pakistani authorities as saying they've made a breakthrough in the Bhutto assassination case:

A 15-year-old detained near the Afghan border has confessed to joining a team of assassins sent to kill Benazir Bhutto, officials said Saturday, announcing the first arrests in the case since the attack that killed the opposition leader.

...Interior Secretary Kamal Shah confirmed the arrest of two people in the town of Dera Ismail Khan in North West Frontier province, and said one — a teenage boy — had confessed involvement in the Dec. 27 attack that killed Bhutto. He said interrogators were trying to get corroborating testimony from the other detainee before accepting the confession.

Is it just me that thinks that's because it is taking longer to torture a quite possible false confession out of the grown man than it did the 15 year old boy? Just how seriously can we take this claim?

In North West Frontier province, a senior intelligence official said the 15-year-old suspect in the Bhutto assassination told investigators that a five-person squad was dispatched to Rawalpindi, where Bhutto was killed, by Baitullah Mehsud, a militant leader with strong ties to al-Qaida and an alliance with the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan.

The official, who asked not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the boy was arrested Thursday and was also involved in a plot to attack Shiites during the Ashoura festival on Sunday.

the plot, it seems, involved dumping a "small quantity" of cyanide into the public water supply. It's unclear just how effective such a move would be, since the Rawalpindi municipal water supply (about 200 million litres per day) would dilute the cyanide greatly and the oral lethal dose is in the order of 7 miligrams per kilo of body weight or about half a gram for an average person. Do the math - to be sure of lethal doses you aren't talking about "small quantities".

In Dera Ismail Khan, a town 170 miles southwest of Islamabad where the teenager was arrested, a district police commander said the suspect had made "a sensational disclosure." The officer also asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

But Maulvi Mohammed Umar, a purported spokesman for Mehsud, dismissed the report. "It is just government propaganda ... we have already clarified that we are not involved in the attack on Benazir Bhutto."

The CIA concluded that Mehsud was behind Bhutto's killing shortly after it occurred, an American intelligence official has said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Since CIA director Michael Hayden is already on record as saying Mehsud was responsible, it's very unclear why some other official feels the need to confirm his opinion while remaining anonymous, unless it's because press types love their cloak-and-dagger exclusives so much. The fact remains, however, that others within the US intelligence community aren't as certain as Hayden about who ordered Bhutto's killing and believe Musharraf's government is blaming one of its biggest internal rivals (who helpfully has ties to the taliban and very distant ties through them to Al Qaeda) to dupe the West and Pakistani opinion.

All in all, an incredibly convenient tale with some serious questions hanging over it that, as is depressingly common, went unasked by the stenographers of the mainstream press.

The Usual Suspects

By Cernig

The CIA has placed the blame for Benazir Bhutto's assassination on a combination of Al Qaeda, America's primary enemy, and South Waziristan tribal leader Baitullah Mehsud, Pakistan's primary internal enemy. How convenient.

Offering the most definitive public assessment by a U.S. intelligence official, Hayden said Bhutto was killed by fighters allied with Mehsud, a tribal leader in northwestern Pakistan, with support from al-Qaeda's terrorist network. That view mirrors the Pakistani government's assertions.

The same alliance between local and international terrorists poses a grave risk to the government of President Pervez Musharraf, a close U.S. ally in the fight against terrorism, Hayden said in 45-minute interview with The Washington Post. "What you see is, I think, a change in the character of what's going on there," he said. "You've got this nexus now that probably was always there in latency but is now active: a nexus between al-Qaeda and various extremist and separatist groups."

But there's some question over the accuracy of hayden's pronouncement.

"This was done by that network around Baitullah Mehsud. We have no reason to question that," Hayden said.

...Some administration officials outside the agency who deal with Pakistani issues were less conclusive, with one calling the assertion "a very good assumption."

One of the officials said there was no "incontrovertible" evidence to prove or rebut the assessment.

So not everyone agrees with Hayden's assessment. Why could that be? Here comes the outrageous spin which is more important than accuracy:

Hayden said that the United States has "not had a better partner in the war on terrorism than the Pakistanis." The turmoil of the past few weeks has only deepened that cooperation, he said, by highlighting "what are now even more clearly mutual and common interests."

Oh, I get it - fixing the intelligence around the policy again, rather than admitting the policy of supporting and arming Musharraf's regime was an utter failure. Spin rather than actually addressing questions about Musharraf's government's catch and release of terrorist bigwigs and failure to even chase Bin Laden (who supposedly needs dialysis) or Mullah Omar (MI6 even provided his telephone number and address at an ISI safe house in Quetta).

Same old, same old. If you're a despot with a faux-democratic smokescreen, willing to mouth platitudes about the War on Some Terror and buy expensive military toys, you've no better friend than the Bush administration.

Update Looks like I'm not the only one who is highly sceptical about Hayden's pronouncement. Larisa at Raw Story reports that several former and current officials and intelligence agents from both the US and Britain don't believe it either. Don't bother holding your breath for the Scotland Yard report either. the Pakistani authorities have banned them from looking into who might be responsible and told them to restrict their investigations to only the exact cause of her death.

The ISI And The Militants

By Cernig

The NY Times today has a long report on how the Pakistani intelligence agency, the ISI, began and directed most of the worlds major Islamist terrorist outfits as proxies of Pakistani foreign policy. But, get this, they say they don't do that post-9/11 and that the militants have escaped their previously tight control.

Pakistan’s premier military intelligence agency has lost control of some of the networks of Pakistani militants it has nurtured since the 1980s, and is now suffering the violent blowback of that policy, two former senior intelligence officials and other officials close to the agency say.

As the military has moved against them, the militants have turned on their former handlers, the officials said. Joining with other extremist groups, they have battled Pakistani security forces and helped militants carry out a record number of suicide attacks last year, including some aimed directly at army and intelligence units as well as prominent political figures, possibly even Benazir Bhutto.

The growing strength of the militants, many of whom now express support for Al Qaeda’s global jihad, presents a grave threat to Pakistan’s security, as well as NATO efforts to push back the Taliban in Afghanistan. American officials have begun to weigh more robust covert operations to go after Al Qaeda in the lawless border areas because they are so concerned that the Pakistani government is unable to do so.

...The threat from the militants, the former intelligence officials warned, is one that Pakistan is unable to contain. “We could not control them,” said one former senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “We indoctrinated them and told them, ‘You will go to heaven.’ You cannot turn it around so suddenly.”

The article goes on to describe how Musharraf really is trying to fight the good fight, honestly. But he's being stymied by entrenched opponents within the ISI who want to retain some ability to use Islamist terror groups as proxies and he has little ability to change that.

Is anyone actually believing this BS? It appears so.

And yet a long litany of catch-and-release of major terrorist leaders, of terror groups still acting as direct arms of Pakistani policy in e.g. Mumbai, of public pardons not just once but multiple times for supposedly hostile Islamist leaders like the man accused of ordering Bhutto's assassination (possibly falsely), of obviously staged and quite laughably fallible assassination "attempts" on Musharraf himself, all point towards a very different interpretation.

That Musharraf, through hand-picked loyalists, has full control over the ISI and that protestations both that Pakistan is fully on board in the War on Some Terror and that the ISI is full of loose cannons are simply spin for gullible Westerners, designed to defuse foreign pressure on Pakistan in the wake of Bhutto's death and still keep the arms aid flowing.

Pakistan Army Moves To Control Wheat Stores

By Cernig

From the BBC today comes the news that Pakistan's Musharraf has moved the military to control all outlets for the staple foods, wheat and flour:

The authorities in Pakistan have deployed paramilitary troops to guard wheat supplies around the country amid fears of a massive shortfall.
The government has blamed hoarders and smugglers for the problem.

Wheat is a staple food in Pakistan and shortages have led to large scale rioting in the past.

Flour shortfalls initially pushed up market prices. Later flour ran out on the open market when officials fixed prices and warned against violations.

Now Pakistan's national disaster management authority has deployed thousands of paramilitary troops at wheat stores.

The head of the authority said the aim was to ensure that store owners did not sell more than allowed by the government.

...There have been wheat and rice shortages across South Asia in recent weeks and world prices have reached record highs.

Regular reader and Newshoggers researcher Kat has been keeping her eye on worldwide food shortages and hopefully she'll be setting down a guest-post on the subject soon. If the US is heading into a recession, I think a lot of people might want to know that the cost of staple foods is set to skyrocket.

But it also strikes me, in Pakistan's case, that if a soft totalitarian state wants to ensure it has control of the populace, there must be few better ways to do so than being able to decide who eats.

Bhutto Bomb Aimed At Gunman's Silence?

By Cernig

Larisa Alexandrovna has been talking to former U.S. spooks, who say that the real target of the suicide bomb at Bhutto's assassination may well have been the gunman.

Three former US intelligence officials have told Raw Story that not only is the gunman dead, he was likely the actual target of the suicide bomber.

According to a former high ranking US intelligence official, who wishes to remain anonymous due to the delicate nature of the information, the US intelligence community understands the gunman to have been killed in the blast following Mrs. Bhutto's assassination.

"He was killed, probably not knowing that the suicide bomber was there," said this source. "We don't know for sure if the two men arrived together. We do know that the assassin died in the explosion, and was probably meant to."

Several other US intelligence officials concur that the bomber was likely "inserted" to "clean up" evidence of the shooting, including eliminating the gunman.

When asked why it was important to determine the relationship between the gunman and the suicide bomber, one former CIA officer explained that such details are the key to understanding what happened, how it happened, and who was ultimately responsible. Such details also enable investigators to document patterns and methods used, in order to determine if a terrorist attack has indeed taken place or something else has occurred.

The official narrative that Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud was responsible for Bhutto's death is fraught with difficulties - not least that he has denied it while calling for an independent international investigation or that no-one can independently verify the alleged transcript of his congratulating a minion by telephone for the assassination. Even if Mehsud was responsible, he's been pardoned by Musharraf three times already and Pakistani intelligence's links to the Taliban and other Islamist groups are fairly well documented. It takes a lot of determined looking the other way - as the Bush administration has done these past years - to ignore those ties. Musharraf isn't even looking for Bin Laden and his military is adamant that no foreign troops or intelligence agents will be allowed on Pakistani soil to conduct anti-terror operations or to help secure Pakistan's nukes.

The very muddled - perhaps deliberately so - narrative from the Pakistani authorities about how Bhutto died has also added to suspicions of a cover-up. That wasn't helped when Musharraf admitted that Bhutto may have been shot but said that it was her own fault for sticking her head up, not a failure to provide adequate security. British investigators are now looking for Bhutto's headscarf, in the hope that it may settle the question of how she died. There's a dearth of evidence because the crime scene was hosed down within hours and no autopsy was performed.

The Washington Post reports today that all of this is fuelling ethnic tension in Pakistan - where the Sindhi minority, from which Bhutto's family comes, are increasingly anoyed at the Punjabi majority who also make up most of the Army. It's a recipe for civil war in the maiking, but the West is in a very weak position right now with respect to Pakistan. Back to Larisa:

at this point, the US has “no workable solution” and cannot discontinue support for Musharraf, given the options.

“We are being held hostage to Musharraf's whim,” said one former intelligence official.

“What options do we have now? None. Under Musharraf, al Qaeda has grown. The tribal sheiks have also grown. It is a mess and there is not a damn thing we can do about it.”

Can Bush at least stop selling the General-in-plainclothes advanced weaponry (e.g. nuke-capable fighters, anti-tank missiles, airborne early warning platforms) more useful against his neighbours than extremists, even if it does help line US arms manufacturers pockets with US taxpayers' money?

Only Half An Investigation

By Cernig

Today, Pakistan's Musharraf signalled in the clearest possible way that the investigation into Benazir Bhutto's death will be only half an investigation - with the most important questions already answered the way he wants them whether Scotland Yard is involved or not.

President Pervez Musharraf said Thursday that uncertainty remained about the exact cause of Benazir Bhutto's death, despite an initial government report that she was killed when a bomb blast slammed her head into her vehicle.

"One should not give a statement that's 100 percent final. That's the flaw that we suffer from," Musharraf said at a news conference, noting that more evidence was emerging about the attack. "We needed more experience, maybe more forensic and technical experience that our people don't have. Therefore I thought Scotland Yard may be more helpful."

Musharraf said he also reached out to British investigators for assistance to dispel accusations that Pakistan's military or intelligence services were involved.

"We don't mind going to any extent, as nobody is involved from the government or agency side," he said.

...He conceded there were shortcomings in Pakistan's handling of the case, including the hosing down of the bomb site hours after the attack, widely seen as undermining a detailed forensic examination. But he dismissed any suggestion there was a plan to conceal evidence.

"I'm not fully satisfied. I will accept that: cleaning the area. Why did they do that? If you are meaning they did that by design I would not say no. It's just inefficiency, people thinking things have to be cleared, traffic has to go through," he said.

He's so sure of that, despite everything, even before the investigators from the UK arrive? There's been a clean-up operation.

The question of who ordered Bhutto's death, then, is already settled in Musharraf's view and the narrative on that will not be questioned by subsequent investigations. Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud is to be blamed, despite his denying involvement and himself calling for a UN investigation, despite US intelligence misgivings about Pakistan's claims, despite obvious questions about regime complicity raised by Bhutto herself before her death and by others all along.

Instead, investigations will focus on the question of exactly how Bhutto died during an assassination attempt which succeeded in killing its target - a spurious distraction entirely manufactured by the Pakistani regime to distract from the more important questions that will now be swept under the carpet.

And the elections will be delayed by six weeks, despite both main opposition parties calling for them to go ahead as planned. The delay benefits Musharraf's proxies and supporters most - which is quite possibly the point of the whole exercise. Musharraf's supporters in the West would hardly have swallowed such a delay for any lesser reason.