Thursday, November 08, 2007

Incumbent backlash begins

By Libby

A lot of people think I'm just an angry old hippie and don't know that much about how The Village works. They're right. I am and I don't, but having led an unconventional life, treading a path through a wide swath of the social strata, I think I know how the average Jake thinks and have a gut level understanding of what makes them tick, or ticks them off.

I've been saying for a very long while that 08 is going to be the year when the conventional wisdom is finally exploded and this item would seem to validate that theory.

*** When voters attack: Congress’ approval rating is at 19%, and that’s largely fueled by independents’ increasing disapproval. Per Hart, “This says to Democratic leaders, ‘You are not communicating. And you are not communicating with independents.’” That said, Democrats still enjoy a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot (46%-37%). But just 39% of respondents believe their OWN member of Congress deserves re-election; 51% say it’s time to give someone new a chance. That's a staggering number, folks. “I believe that we are facing as angry and unstable an electorate as I’ve seen in my career, McInturff says. And when that happens: “A lot of straight-line projections we thought will happen will not happen.”

I think we're going to see this right down the line. I spent about an hour yesterday poring over election results in Mass, where I understand state and local politics the best and I see a trend emerging. The smaller towns are maintaining the status quo, which seems natural. Small town folks are generally satisfied with their life and don't like change much, but a significant number of larger cities unseated their incumbents in unexpected upsets.

The people want change and the Democrats would do well to start delivering some, starting now, instead of depending on generic polling as an excuse to stall for time. I don't think the elecorate is willing to wait.

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