Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Initial thoughts

  1. Clinton got at least one blow-out win that she needs and one solid victory (which could maintain itself as a blow-out), and a decent delegate count pick-up in Ohio.
  2. Quite a few of my friends and acquaintances will be getting called in the next two or three days to see if they want to do paid GOTV.
  3. Clinton closed the past three days hard
  4. The most interesting thing to me in the exit polls about Ohio is the tiny gap that Obama had in Republican voters. Normally he'll win that group 65-30 against Clinton, the CNN exit polls are indicating that he won this group 54:46, so instead of being up a net of 3 points ina group that is 9% of the electorate, he is up a net of less than 1 point. I wonder how much is tactical voting by Republican partisans, how much is 'The Dem Race is interesting and I could vote for her" by Republicans and how much was general economic uncertainty.
  5. Cleveland coming in as a break even city was surprising
  6. NAFTA killed Obama in the last three days --- unlikely to happen again
  7. Clinton looks like she overperformed tonight by not getting crushed in Vermont, and doing well in Ohio
  8. Obama's early voting operation will probably give him a breakeven to tiny win in Texas
  9. The delegate math still sucks for Clinton

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