Thursday, February 21, 2008

Pennyslvania Primary Update

Right now with Obama closing hard in Texas and Bill Clinton stating in the New York Times that he believes that Hillary Clinton needs to win both Texas AND Ohio to be the nominee, Pennsylvania is receding slightly in its chance to be the decisive state. But there are still a few tidbits.

First it looks increasingly likely that short of a massive gaffe/flub/case of potty mouth, Obama should win Pennsylvania if it is a contested state. Recent polling and trends at are showing that Obama is beginning to close the large Clinton lead that had been held mainly be inertia and institutional power. Today's Franklin and Marshall poll has him down twelve which is well within striking distance if both campaigns camp out in Pennsylvania for six weeks straight. Combine a better ground organization with the defensive wielding of the Teamsters and other 'tough' union endorsements to defuse some cultural resistance to voting for Obama, and this state is looking good for Obama. He would lose if voting was held tomorrow, but he has eight weeks to make up ground, and he has been a better mid-distance runner than Clinton.

Second, my Congressman Mike Doyle had an extended conversation with the Pittsburgh City Paper concerning his role as a super-delegate:

Gov. Ed Rendell and Philly Mayor Nutter are backing Clinton, while U.S. senators Ted Kennedy and John Kerry are for Obama. (Doyle himself says he's undecided.)....

Anyone who thinks we can't wait to chomp on our cigars and get in a smoke-filled room and make a deal, that's crazy," he says. "We want to leave unified," and that means making it clear "somebody won fair and square."....

Still, Super Mike has been enjoying his moment in the sun. He's been phone-tagging with Hillary, and he got a call from Hillary's Super Hubby, who was hanging out on Super Bowl Sunday with Super Mike's previous favorite, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. "They first called a few hours after Richardson had dropped out," Doyle says. "That's how good they are."...

Super Mike has not received a call from Obama. He says he might be influenced if there's a big tilt among primary voters in his district. He says he might be influenced by a candidate's commitment to getting out of Iraq soon. Doyle had the balls to vote against the war in the first place, unlike a certain White Chick.

I am surprised that Congressman Doyle has not been aggressively lobbied by the Obama campaign as I think that Congressman Doyle should be a categorized as at least a 2 on a five point persuadable scale based on Iraq and environmental record, as well as his District's primary electorate demographics. They favor Obama in my opinion. Clinton's campaign in this case is the aggressive, competent and well run campaign even if they are categorizing Doyle as a tougher than median 'get.' They are making an extensive effort and as anyone in politics knows,the best way to get someone's vote is to actually ask for it.

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