Sunday, February 17, 2008

Pennsylvania Delegate Allocation rules

I'm doing some prep work for a conversation tomorrow about Pennsylvania politics, and I'm looking at the delegate allocation formula for the Pennsylvania Primary. I'm grabbing this information from the Green Papers

158 of 188 delegates to the Democratic National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders based on the results of the voting in today's Pennsylvania Presidential Primary. A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level.

103 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the State's 19 congressional districts.
CD 9: 3 delegates
CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19: 4 delegates each

CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18: 5 delegates each
CDs 6: 6 delegates each
CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14: 7 delegates each
CD 2: 9 delegates
In addition, 55 delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.
35 at-large National Convention delegates
20 Pledged PLEOs

The dark blue districts are areas where Hillary Clinton should wrap up big margins, while the light blue areas are demographically favorable to Barrack Obama on the basis of large African American and/or creative class Democrats. Just guessing right now, but in my mind it is very plausible that Hillary Clinton could pull a Nevada here, and win the state's popular vote and break even in the delegate count. I don't think Obama will lose even delegate low value districts by 25 point margins, so he'll break even there, and he can afford 2:3 and 1:2 splits in the odd delegate districts. I think he can make up significant ground in Pittsburgh and Philadelaphia and I see 58:42 splits which would give him two or three net delegate gains much more readily than I see 63/37 splits for Clinton in other areas of the state.

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