by shamanic
Do we have a new president yet? I feel like last night should have decided the whole thing, but apparently not.
A couple more thoughts: first, from what I've heard pundits say and in various media accounts, the calendar on the Dem side was more or less the product of Hillary Clinton's allies in the Dem establishment, and it was created to make a fast path to her nomination. I can't say that's the true story, but it's one that's treated as fact by much of the media. And it would have worked... if it weren't for you meddling kids! (Which, in the Georgia wipe out, meant anyone under 65, but that's probably not representative of the day's totals.) And of course, Obama has successfully peeled away African American voters by wide margins in every state except New York. And white men. And a considerable number of white women. I live in the south, where black and white is still very much the racial issue of the era (whereas in the west, Latinos factor heavily), and I have to say that the constituency Obama is building is a truly exciting coalition that feels like it marks the beginning of something entirely new for this country.
Second thought: Arkansas. It isn't a big prize, with just 6 electoral votes, but in previous elections even flipping a single state has had big ramification in candidate strategy and outcome. Clinton won handily there last night, where she served as first lady for many years, but Huckabee, the former governor, did too. So, in a Clinton-McCain matchup, is Arkansas in play? I have no idea, but if Huck is in the VP slot for McCain, the answer is no. Again, only 6 electoral votes, and I don't imagine either campaign will devote big resources to capturing it.
That wasn't much of a thought. More of a flicker of a thought along the lines of: Why did Clinton concede so much of the deep south while Obama fought for (and won) our votes? I suspect it reflects her natural ceiling, and one that Obama may or may not be subject to. Georgia is a very, very red state at this point, but I swear to you, if Obama is the nominee, the GOP will have to drop some real money, time, and resources here to secure this state. And this year, this one time, money and resources are not the things that they have pouring out of their ears. This one year, we have a chance to flip a few red states, and Clinton can't do it. I don't know for sure if Obama can either, but Clinton already hung the "not bothering" sign and Obama didn't. He's also raising more money now than she is, and based on the number of states and delegates he won last night, I'd say his campaign knows how to get plenty of bang for the buck.
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