This is based on the absymal October home sales data and for anyone who wants to call a bottom, Calculated Risk is doing some depressing data crunching by making the assumption that the trend and long term historical norms still have some relevance in predicting the intermediate term future and that the New Paradigm in housing is really nothing new...
the annual variability in the turnover of existing homes, with a median of 6% of owner occupied units selling per year.There is still a good way down for the US to start returning to trend in the housing market which means construction employment is going to take a significant hit, especially as non-residential investment is now slowing down as a near substitute of skills, which means the basic activity multiplier effect of construction jobs will take out a bunch of other jobs, which will feed into both worsening credit capacity and credit maitenance which means more foreclosures and more pressure on housing, all in an environment where very few people have easily tappable, liquid and reliable reserves.
Currently 6% of owner occupied units would be about 4.6 million existing home sales per year. This indicates that the turnover of existing homes - October sales were at a 4.97 million Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) - is still above the historical median.
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