I leave the horserace analysis for the big guys, but this little metric from the lastest Rasmussen poll caught my eye. It seems that the good women of Iowa don't "love a soft place to lay and a strong pair of hands to hold us” as much as Hollywood Fred's ex's thought they would.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
I was heavily criticized when I first broached the question of whether Fred's sexy young wife would be a help or a hindrance. Might I suggest this vindicates the question and my intuition that it wouldn't play so well in Peoria.