Friday, September 14, 2007

Reconfirmation of the costs borne by Iraqis

Tim Lambert at Deltoid has pointed out a new British poll with a very interesting and depressing data point that is reconfirming the results of the John Hopkins studies that have been published in the Lancet:

poll released today by O.R.B., the British polling agency that have been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005. In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a representative sample of 1,461 adults aged 18+ answered the following question:-

Q How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.

None 78% One 16% Two 5% Three 1% Four or more 0.2%

Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003

Please note the survivor bias in asking people who are still alive about the deaths of their relatives. By its very design, the poll will be excluding some intact households that died as a complete entity at some point in the past four years.

Over 1 million people have died in Iraq, and our political discourse concerns itself with an advertisement and whether or not it used intemperate language.

Over 4 million people are refugees in Iraq, and the 'way forward' is more of the same policy dictated by simple arthimatic

17% of a population either dead or displaced, and we still live in a land of make believe.

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