Wednesday, September 12, 2007

A quick note

I just took a quick look at the CNN Money front page and pulled the following screen shot:

And the nominal record high oil price headline has absolutely no relationship to the weakening US dollar --- no relationship at all, no sirree [/snark]

A weakening dollar should mean that all else being equal, oil and other dollar-denominated assets should become pricier dollar wise but comparatively less pricy in other currencies. Not a big surprise there, but I am slightly surprised that we are seeing this type of run-up in 2007 as conditions are 'normal.' There have been no devestating hurricanes, Iraqi oil exports are no different than they were in 2005, Nigeria has not become significantly worse etc. There is the geopolitical risk factor of a potential system sabotage campaign in Mexico combined with natural depletion caused decline at Canterall, but that is the big new geopolitical risk factor right now.

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