Update on the Baseline of Violence

Last week when I wrote about the baseline of violence and how marginal and minimal changes in the number and types of attacks, the data was limited. New data has come in, and it extends my closing remarks albiet also negating part of my conclusion:

Reducing the level of violence by 10% nationwide is a positive step in reducing suffering, but it does nothing to further anything that vaguely resembles a US strategic goal. Reducing the level of violence by 25% is a positive step in reducing suffering, but it does nothing to further anything that vaguely resembles a US strategic goal. Reducing the level of violence by 50% nationwide is a positive step in reducing suffering, but it does nothing to further anything that vaguely resembles a US strategic goal.

Reuters is reporting the monthly data for June has been compiled and released. The month of June was not a good month for the argument that the surge is working in reducing violence across the country. At best it is merely displacing the location of violence, although a second explanation may be that the Sadrists have already accomplished the vast majority of their intermediate term objectives and have very few people and groups left to fight.

The June numbers showed 5,335 attacks against coalition troops, Iraqi security forces, civilians and infrastructure.

June's total was 2.5 percent below an October 2006 peak of 5,472 attacks and slightly lower than the 5,365 attacks in May.

But because June has only 30 days, the average daily number of attacks was 177.8, higher than the 176.5 last October and 173.1 in May.

The Pentagon statistics, which come as pressure mounts in the U.S. Congress for a troop withdrawal from Iraq, depicted the most intensive month for daily attacks since Bush declared major combat operations at an end in May 2003.