Turkish Army Wants To Invade Iraq

By Cernig

The Turkish military has finally decided to ask its government to approve attacks on Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. It has been expected by many and what is most surprising is that it took so long.

Such action could put an overstretched U.S. military in the middle of a fight between two crucial partners, the Turks and the Iraqi Kurds. A recent surge in Kurdish attacks in southeastern Turkey has increased the pressure on Turkey's military to act.

``An operation into Iraq is necessary,'' Gen. Yasar Buyukanit told reporters.

...Massoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq, said recently that Iraqi Kurds would retaliate for any Turkish interference in northern Iraq by stirring up trouble in Turkey's southeast.

Since 1984, a Kurdish separatist group has used terror tactics in an attempt to win autonomy from Turkish rule and eventual unification with Kurds who currently live within the borders of Iraq and Iran. There are arguments for both for and against that autonomy but the fact remains that their tactic of terror instead of negotiation has left over 30,000 Turkish people dead since the Kurdish group - the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK - began its campaign. The PKK is listed as a terror organisation by the US.

Yet the Iraqi government and the US-led occupation has done little to nothing to halt cross-border incursions by the PKK. There are no border patrols other than those furnished by Iraqi Kurds, for instance. The Kurdish region has, so far, been the quietest part of Iraq and both the major Kurdish parties, the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, support the PKK and have been accused of helping to arm it. Neither the US or Iraqi authorities have been willing to rock the Kurdish boat over the terrorists' attacks on Turkey.

Nor does it hurt that the PKK also carries out attacks in Iran, something the current US government may well have encouraged clandestinely and certainly is in no mood to discourage.

Thus the Turkish dissatisfaction and anger, which has been brewing since before the invasion, when "no-fly" zones afforded the PKK protection against Turkey as well as protecting innocent Kurds against Saddam's predation. More and more, the Turks have been pointing to the Bush Doctrine as applied by the US in Iraq and by Israel in lebanon last summer and asserting that they too have the right to a preventative attack. Since at least last August, the received wisdom among diplomats is that Turkey was going to cross the border "sooner or later...whether Washington likes it or not."

Which explains why, as I wrote last month, the Kurds are the least likely of all Iraqis to want the US troop presence withdrawn. It isn't that they love the occupation, it is that the think that occupation will be a protection against the Turks.

Should the Turkish army cross the border, the Bush administration will be forced to choose between two evils. Back the Kurds and they will find themselves in a fight against a NATO ally with a massive military. Back Turkey, even by a diplomatic deal whereby Turkey doesn't attack in return for the US actually doing something about the PKK, and Kurdish Iraq's acceptance of the occupation will literally go up in smoke. Then the Iraqi army has to make the same set of choices, knowing some of their most effective units are manned entirely by Kurdish peshmerga militiamen who were loyal to the PKK before joining the IA. If the US and Iraq choose different sides it would lead to the probability of clashes between them all across Iraq.

And then there is Iran, waiting in the wings, fully aware that if Turkey has the right to invade Iraq in pursuit of PKK terrorists then Iran does too.

Whatever happens, it is doubtful that the US military has the strength in depth to extend its already stretched forces further by taking on a major conflict in the North of Iraq. Indeed, it is exactly that over-stretch, coupled with the Bush administration's attempt to play clever by letting the PKK be their proxies to attack Iran, which has led to this foreign policy Gordian Knot where no option seems like a good one.

(Hat tips - Kat and Fester)