Post-Blair Rethink For UK Strategy Will Isolate Bush Further

By Cernig

The Guardian reports that Gordon Brown, the heir apparent to Tony Blair, is looking for guidance for a new direction in British foreign policy thinking on Iraq.

Proposals for a fundamental post-Blairite rethink of government policy towards Iraq are being prepared involving Lord Ashdown, the former UN high representative to Bosnia, and Sir Jeremy Greenstock, the former British envoy to Baghdad.

The aim is to produce a report drawing on thinking in the British military and diplomatic establishment which is intended to be of comparable importance to that of the American Iraq Study Group, chaired by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, which called for a fundamental rethink of US policy, including a diplomatic re-engagement with countries such as Syria and Iran. Many of its proposals were rejected by George Bush.

I predicted over a year ago that Bush wasn't going to get another poodle in No.10. But by now, Brown has to know that being seen as too much in the US' foreign policy shadow will sink any chance he has at the next general election faster than any other issue. So the choice of advisors is highly significant. The Guardian continues by quoting the former envoy to Iraq.

In a speech, Sir Jeremy, broadly loyal to the government's original Iraq policy, said the coalition forces on their own could no longer make Iraq better. Lord Ashdown said yesterday: "We need to find a new way forward, drawing on the foreign policy and military expertise available, as happened with the Iraq Study Group in the US, and some kind of conference of the regional powers." Sir Jeremy has also called for a new regional diplomatic initiative, leading to a peace conference of the kind staged by the Americans at Dayton on Bosnia. In a speech in Australia this week, he also warned that violence is likely to continue for as long as five years, and the coalition troops on their own could no longer bring peace to the country.

"In the short term you have an irredeemable mix of violence amongst a number of different factions, deep sectarian divisions and divisions within Sunni and Shia parts of Iraq. This mix means it will make it very difficult for any outsider to put this back together again". He added: "It has to done by Iraqis. It needs three things. It needs law and order - a huge challenge now that we have got to this depth of violence. It also needs wise and collective political leadership, which we have not had so far in Iraq. And third, we need the willing and positive help of the neighbours, because to my mind Iraq cannot now do this on its own. The coalition can only help to stop it getting worse; the coalition cannot make Iraq better. Iraqis have to do that."

Iran, the most influential neighbour, "is not capable of taking over Iraq or even the Shia south-east of Iraq. Iran does not want to do that ... The government of Iran has got enough problems with its own ethnic makeup to enlarge its country. Nevertheless it is capable of creating a lot of nuisance to make things as difficult as possible for the US.

"If Iran and indeed the other neighbours realised that the coalition is now going to leave before too long and they became responsible for the security of the region then that is a different set of conditions for the region.

Two things.

Firstly, Greenstock's view that Iran "is not capable of taking over Iraq" or any portion of it flies in the face of conventional wisdom in the US from both Republicans and many Democrats. It is, however, a view I agree with. As Greenstock says, Iran has more than enough problems right now. It would be a fatal overstretch to try.

Secondly, Brown's study is going to give political cover for US Democrats if this is the way the thinking will go. It will present the pro-occupation lobby with an international "coalition of the willing to leave" which will also gain solid support from regional Arab states if they can be convinced of Greenstock's belief that Iran won't be able to expand its influence thereby. Nor will American hawks be able to look to the British political Right for support. The UK's conservative party are, if anything, even keener than Brown to be done with Iraq.