Painted Into A Corner Of Their Own Making

Congratulations to the US military - they've finally found a way to reconcile radical Sunnis and Shiites.

Via the UK's ITV News:

Thousands of Shia Baghdad residents have taken to the streets in protest against the US construction of a wall in the Iraqi capital.

The protests were called by radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr who condemned the the wall calling it a sign of the "evil will" of American "occupiers".

The US military announced last week it was building a three-mile long 12-foot high concrete wall in a Sunni stronghold that has been targeted by Shia militiamen.

Shia cleric Hadi al-Kaabi said: "We are Iraqis, Muslims, Sunnis and Shia and there is no difference between us, brothers in this country.

"We don't want those who want to separate us and we don't want walls in this country, and we don't want to be like Palestine and Israel".

Many Sunnis contested the US plans and have also held protests against the wall.

The remarks were the first response on the wall from Muqtada al-Sadr since the US military announced the planned construction last week.

The "Baghdad Wall" is rapidly becoming an unforseen catalyst for events in Iraqi politics - events that were already in motion but which this issue has accelerated.

For some time now, there's been a nationalist undercurrent in Iraq politics involving figures such as Sadr and the Sunni leader al-Mutlaq. Sadr has used Iran for support but isn't nearly as beholden to them as the current CSIRI-based government is - recall that Iranian diplomats arrested by the US for aiding attacks on US forces had appointemnts with the current President, Prime Minister and National Security Advisor. Now, as I wrote yesterday, I feel the circumstances favor Sadr breaking away from his Iranian ties to return to what has always been his first cause, iraqi nationalism. It may well be that we will see a non-sectarian anti-occupation coalition arise in the next few weeks and make a bid for power.

That would change many things - not least the opinions and actions of regional leaders. They've been keen to manipulate the US into staying in Iraq just a little longer, in order to stave off what at present seems inevitable - a three-fold whammy of a pro-Iranian regime in Iraq, Kurdish partition and spillover from both of those leading to serious unrest in neighbouring states. A nationalist coalition in power would enable neighbouring nation's leaders to relax and allow their populace to rule their policy - and the populace uniformly wants an American withdrawal, seeing too many echoes of Israel's policy in Palestine and Lebanon for comfort.

It has been noted today, by no less than the American Conservative magazine, that the single-issue hawks of the Right cannot admit to themselves the mess their single-minded zeal has made of the conservative domestic agenda at home in the US. Likewise, they cannot admit the mess they have made in Iraq, always asking for just another Friedman, another surge, a little more time.

But unless such a solution is forthcoming, then no-one except the faithful hawks actually believes anymore that a continued US occupation of Iraq will actually help matters. All it does is postpone the inevitable, as the ill-feeling and sectarian feuds build up an ever larger head of steam. The longer the US allows itself to be involved in "staying the course" the worse the eventual explosion will be.

Unfortunately, the Bush administration has painted itself into a rhetorical corner where the one thing they most need - a lull in the fighting enough to provide an excuse for an exit - is politically unacceptable if it is provided by such as Sadr and Sunni nationalists who have provided much of the impetus behind the resistance to the occupation.