The US Army is out of rested, fully trained deployable combat units. This had been the case when the baseline force for the Iraq mission was fifteen ground combat brigades, and it is even more pointed now that the new baseline force for the next nine to twelve months is twenty ground combat brigades. The US has no readily deployable strategic reserve. There are only two sources of brigades for Iraq. The first is extending tours and compressing dwell times so units spend a higher proportion of their time in Iraq. The other is calling on the National Guard in an attempt to create a little bit of breathing room in the rotation schedule.
Yesterday we saw some reports that the DOD was considering extending four more active duty ground combat brigades for up to four months for extended duty in Iraq. If this occurred over half of the brigades currently deployed in Iraq would have either been deployed before their one year reconstitution goal, or been deployed in Iraq for more than twelve months.
Thankfully this report was wrong. ABC News is now reporting that these four brigades will not be singled out. Instead the proposal is for all active duty Army units to prepare for fifteen month deployments. The DOD under this option is promising that all units will be guaranteed to receive a one year dwell time minimum after their fifteen month deployment, but that promise is not a credible promise as similar promises have been broken in the past.
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