Will Bush Gamble On Allawi To Unseat Maliki?

Marc Lynch at the Guardian is warning that Iyad Allawi, the Prime Minister of Iraq during the interim government that replaced the Coalition Provisional Authority, may be back on the hunt for power - and with the backing of neoconservative elements who see him as a useful faux-democratic strongman and, just as importantly, someone who will be anti-Iran in his policies:

Will Iyad Allawi, the rotund one-time Iraqi Prime Minister and current London resident, be the next Prime Minister of Iraq? He certainly seems to want the job, and he suits the Bush administration's agenda suspiciously well. But his return to power would not only fail to end the civil war - it would also signal a decisive end to democratic aspirations in Iraq and the Arab world, increase America's role at a time when most Americans would prefer to leave, and pave the way to a confrontation with Iran.

...While Allawi has only recently returned to the headlines, his bid for a return to power has actually been going on for more than half a year. Allawi's re-emergence dates back to last November, when he began appearing frequently in the Saudi-owned Arab media, and popped up in Amman, Jordan, as a key interlocutor in "secret" talks between the Americans and the Sunni insurgency. Last week, as Allawi's name started to flood the local papers, the Fadhila Party split off from the Shi'ite United Iraqi Alliance and made noises about joining with Allawi's Iraqi National List. While Fadhila has not formally joined with Allawi, the talk of forming the non-sectarian, anti-Iranian "National Salvation Front" long mooted by the Sunni leader Saleh al-Mutlaq continues to grow. Allawi has been negotiating widely, including a recent trip to Kurdistan, ostentatiously accompanied by American Ambassador Zal Khalilzad (Kurdish leader Mahmud Othman says that they are "interested", and KDP leader Masoud Barzani today traveled to Riyadh with Allawi). Iraq-watchers these days entertain themselves by counting votes to see if he might be able to somehow cobble together a Parliamentary majority to unseat Maliki (Moqtada al-Sadr hopping on board is the latest, rather unlikely, rumor).

...An Allawi return would mean a decisive break with even the pretence of caring about a democratic Iraq. He would return as a nationalist strongman, putting security (and American priorities) first, while always keeping in mind that elections are not his friend. The legendary corruption of his first government offers a preview of what to expect. So do his easy use of violence against both Sunni and Shia groups, his harsh repression of the media, and his generally anti-democratic instincts. From the vantage point of the emerging "new Middle East", sadly, this anti-democratic profile is an asset rather than a curse. This "Not-Dam Hussein" would be far more amenable to America's friendly Arab tyrants than is any elected, Shia, pro-Iranian alternative.

This may all come to nothing. Perhaps Allawi's return is being orchestrated simply to put pressure on the Maliki government. But when the current "surge" inevitably fails, and Washington's (and Riyadh's) itch to combat Iran grows, keep an eye out for the rotund one. He offers the fantasy of an easy solution to an intractable problem - a "magic bullet" which will only lead us deeper into fiasco.

When Lynch talks about "legendary corruption", don't forget, he's talking about the man who was in charge during what may well have been the biggest heist in history when his defence minister's 10 months in office coincided with the disappearance of more than $800m (£400m) from the ministry’s coffers. Said minister is still free and wandering about London.