Mixed Signals V

Less than a week until the conference of "neighbours" in Baghdad, and there's a lot of stories out there which might well influence discussions. I've been trying to cover some of those stories in "Mixed Signals" for the last few days - and here's another batch.

On the day when the UK's Telegraph ran another neocon story plant designed to derail any reproachment between Sunni and Shiite (and specifically Iran and Saudi Arabia) it also ran a 'helpful' analysis of what it is calling the Sunni-Shiite Schism. The article is determined to carry more neocon water and ignore what the Iranian president and Saudi King actually said while insisting on animosity between the two.

One of the most under-noticed coming problems for the region is Israel's faltering democracy and tendency towards an elite and belligerent faux-democracy. History News Network looks at the rash of recent corruption and vice charges against senior israeli figures and asks: do they "presage the collapse of the Israeli system of governance and democracy?" This one I'm calling a must-read - especially note the parallels with the Bush administration's push in the US to centralize executive power which has led to it's own tales of excess, corruption and contempt for democracy.

The (majority Sunni) Arab league says the Iraqi government is responsible for defusing the sectarian violence tearing the country apart and should redraft the constitution and rescind laws that give preferential treatment to Shiites and Kurds - and if it won't do it then the league will take the issue to the UN Security Council for enforcement. So despite any Saudi/Iranian summit, sectarianism is still going to be a primary issue, and the Arabs just don't trust Maliki. Even if they did, so much of the sectarian feuding is socialized and bottom-up now, rather than top-down that it's difficult to see how any government actions can halt it quickly enough to prevent civil war spreading, I'm afraid. If Saudi Arabia and Iran actually really took the bull by the horns alongside Iraqi action, then maybe.

One possible answer to such divisions that's been discussed in the US but doesn't get as much traction from Middle east neighbours is partition of Iraq into a loosely federal group of regions. Joe Biden's been banging his drum about it for a while now - but more surprising is that Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tx), chair of the Republican Policy Committee, agrees with him.

We do know one thing for sure, if given the chance neoconservative US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad intends to bring up allegations of Iranian EFP bombs in Iraq. Given the flimsy evidence, as well as equally flimsy evidence of US and UK meddling in Iran, that should ensure the entire conference gets derailled into a "he said....but he said" bitchfest. It would be far better to schedule seperate talks to discuss these tit-for-tat allegations, which Khalilzhad, no chump, must already know.

The whole conference will rest on a background of the "surge" and it's progress. So imagine what Sunni leaders will be thinking when the US can waltz into Sadr City with not a shot fired because they Mahdi militia have had time to hide and at the same time Maliki is demanding an investigation into a raid by Iraqi and British forces in Shiite Basra on Sunday (that the British military said found evidence of torture at an intelligence agency detention centre) as well as punishment for "who have carried out this unlawful and irresponsible act." One can well understand why some neighbours question his ability to be impartial.

Talking of the British - this one doesn't actually impinge directly on the conference, it's well outwith the time frame but I couldn't resist...Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the man who should have been the new UK Conservative Party leader if they had any sense, writes in the WaPo about the future of the US/UK "special relationship after Tony "The Poodle" Blair is gone, and the outlook isn't good for the neocons.

Postscript: That's it for now, more tomorrow. I apologise if I've been short on posting today but I received news that my Mother is in hospital back in Scotland having broken her hip last night. I've been preoccupied.