Mixed Signals III

Continuing to look at various matters in the news which may influence or be brought up in discussions at the March 10th conference in Iraq...much of which seem destined to about the US/Iran feud rather than Iraq.

The biggest question every other nation will be asking at the conference is has Bush had a conversion to diplomacy or is it just a smokescreen?

Remember that there is another important conference coming up later in March - a Saudi-convened Arab summit on the Palesinian peace process. Since peace in the region must include peace with Israel as part of the process, it's a crucial link in the chain which might alleviate Iraq's suffering...and Israel is taking a hard line.

The Saudis have been working hard at keeping Israel happy, mainly because they want to be sen as the main Arab powerbroker for the region, a nation everyone has to deal with. They've been working so hard that Haaretz even described Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi Arabian National Security Adviser, as "Israel's liaison to its neighbours". (And yes, I'm sure there's more than a few of you thinking "Sy Hersh!" right now.)

Obama has joined the three other major Dem candidates for president in calling Iran a threat and saying all options must be kept on the table. Now we know he, like the others, is just scared of being seen as weak on national security and after that loverly AIPAC campaign cash, but some foreign nations must be wondering if Bush just cloned himself a few times. If some concessions might have been offered in the hope of getting some respect from the next occupant of the Oval Office, that is now looking like a faint hope.

Meanwhile the neocons are turning hoops because one of their own has been selected as Condi's new counselor. Eliot A. Cohen has been vocal in saying the Bush administration is too soft and negotiates too much! Those hopes that America might turn away from the tactics of hegemonic bully are getting even fainter. The neocons hate to admit that their calls for regime change actually mean "war later, just not now" - but John Bolton shot his mouth off the other day and blew their cover.

To see the differences in US neocon-driven thought versus European thinking over further sanctions on Iran, here's a great little summary from Radio Free Europe. It certainly seems like the Euro view might hold most power right now too - the latest plans are for an incremental tightening of existing sanctions rather than the introduction of new ones.