Thursday, March 15, 2007

First Neocon Ditches Pretence of Rationality Over Iran

It's been pretty obvious for a while now that many of the extreme right's pundits who have been saying they don't believe an attack on Iran was the answer have been doing so under a false flag. What they really meant was that they didn't think they could drum up the political support for such an attack right now - especially after their favorite causus belli fell flat on its face in the aftermath of the farcical Baghdad Briefing.

So they've been biding their time, saying they believe diplomacy was the only answer and waiting for the wind to change a little, at which time they could again hoist the Jolly Rodger.

Mario Loyola, writing at the National Review Online, has gotten impatient for war before the latest round of sanctions on Iran have even been agreed by the full UNSC, let alone waiting to see what effect they might have. (Emphasis is mine - C)
diplomatic options have now virtually run dry. It is clear that the P5+1 have now gone as far as they are willing to go together in imposing sanctions. The great lesson in all this for the diplomatic option in future crises, has been not simply the non-surprising weakness of the Security Council, but the surprising strength of the U.S. Treasury Department, which in recent months has quietly and methodically enveloped Iran's demand for international finance in a hornet's nest of political risk.

The ball now is in Iran's court. In violation of its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, Iran has started curtailing access to International Atomic Energy Agency inspections and threatens more if further sanctions are imposed. Worse, Iran has made it clear that it will reject all Security Council resolutions, thus declaring that it will not be bound by its obligations under the U.N. Charter.

Fine. Then as to Iran, the United States will not be bound by its obligations under the U.N. Charter either, including the Charter prohibition on the use of force.

The "diplomatic option" (modern euphemism for a carrots-but-no-sticks approach) has almost run its course. It has succeeded only in emboldening the Iranians and making them more belligerent. The time for talking to them in a language that they will find more convincing, and that is more likely to gentle their disposition, is now approaching fast.
Expect to see more neocons jump aboard the warship - now that one has ditched any pretense the rest will have an overpowering urge to follow.

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