Dear Mr. Gates...Occam's Razor

More narrative without evidence.

SEVILLE, Spain - Serial numbers and markings on explosives used in Iraq provide "pretty good" evidence that Iran is providing either weapons or technology for militants there, Defense Secretary Robert Gates asserted Friday.

Offering some of the first public details of evidence the military has collected, Gates said, "I think there's some serial numbers, there may be some markings on some of the projectile fragments that we found," that point to Iran.

He thinks? He's the freaking Secretary of Defense! Doesn't he know?

I think I will just refer him to a recent post of mine in which I imagined Bush speaking the truth, and in particular this bit.

I should add that finding Iranian serial numbers on weaponry in Iraq, if such were to actually be the case, actually argues for the actions of corrupt officials and smugglers rather than a massive Iranian government plot. If the Iranians were as sophisticated in their plotting as some members of my administration would have you believe, they would hardly have forgotten to file off those markings, now would they? Your average Texan knows how to do that! (Chuckles)

Then there's those Improved Explosive Devices or IEDs which until now I have insisted were being provided to Iraqi militants by the Iranian government. I have to tell you that I was seriously misled by my briefers. These devices, including even those using explosively formed copper projectiles, are pretty elementary stuff for anyone trained in demolitions - as many of the former members of Saddam's army now with militant groups were. The method of their manufacture is well known and the tolerances needed are not all that exacting. The IRA made exactly the same devices in Northern Ireland and no-one is suggesting they imported them from Iran. Indeed, such devices can be easily made in Iraq and our evidence now suggests that most were in fact made there. Others were no doubt smuggled into the country after being made in small manufacturies in various countries. If we could point to an Iranian factory under Iranian government control which was making these things then that would be one thing - but we cannot and so again Occam's Razor must apply. There is no reason to suppose other than that these items are being made by non-government manufacturies which could be as small as the average U.S. high school machine shop.

More of the same from the Bush mal-administration, I'm afraid. They obviously think they can do again what was done before.

Intelligence provided by former undersecretary of defense Douglas J. Feith to buttress the White House case for invading Iraq included "reporting of dubious quality or reliability" that supported the political views of senior administration officials rather than the conclusions of the intelligence community, according to a report by the Pentagon's inspector general.

Feith's office "was predisposed to finding a significant relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda," according to portions of the report, released yesterday by Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.). The inspector general described Feith's activities as "an alternative intelligence assessment process."

"Stay the course" isn't just a catch-phrase. It's the M.O. for a bunch of criminals and conmen who believe they are, and will remain, beyond the reach of justice.