The Toast Test

Dr. Stephen Taylor, a moderate conservative who I have come to respect for integrity and honor even when I disagree with his thoughts, has his predictions on the winners and losers of today's elections.

In regards to the House I never was able to do my own district-by-district analysis, so I have no basis for making an intelligent seat count. However, I think it is clear that the House will go to the Democrats and I predict, based on what I have read and given certain structural circumstances that the margin for the Democrats will be between 5 and 10 seats.

I was going to do a Senatorial version of the Toast-o-MeterTM, yet the dreaded real life has kept me from it.

Still, here’s a mini-loaf of predictions:

Toast

Rick Santorum (PA): the easiest in the stack to predict. He’s not just toast, he’s burnt toast.
Mike DeWine (OH): Given the double-whammy of national anti-GOP sentiments and state-level anti-GOP sentiments due to corruptions issues, among other problems, how can DeWine be anything but toast?
George Allen (VA): I am going to go out on a semi-limb, as the polls in VA are still close. However, Allen’s foot-in-mouth disease will do him in.
Jim Talent (MO): Yes Talent has won close ones in the past, but not today.

Wonder Bread (a.k.a., the short list)

Corker (TN): The only non-squeaker in the bunch. Corker will end up with a small, yet comfortable win.
Conrad Burns (MT): Despite the problematic nature of his last name for the extended metaphor being employed here, my instincts tell me (that’s all I’ve got on this one) that the very Red Montana returns Burns to Washington. I also predict that the day will come when they probably regret it.
Lincoln Chafee (RI): I thought for sure that he was toast a few days ago, but he seems to be mounting a comeback. I think that at the end of the day, family name and being a known quantity who has been a good Senator for RI will actually win out. Plus, 1% of the voters will vote for Chafee because they will think that a vote for “Whitehouse” is a vote for Bush (–just kidding, or am I?). Chafee will be slightly singed Wonder Bread, but Wonder Bread nonetheless.

In regards to the Maryland race: Cardin will pull in out in a nail-biter. And the GOP can forget NJ–nobody likes their corrupt politicians like NJ, and Menendez will benefit from that, ah, enlightened attitude. After all, everyone deserves a second (or third, or whatever) chance.

That all means:

Democrats: +4
Republicans: -4

For a predicted outcome for the 110th Senate:

Democrats: 49 (including 2 Independents who will caucus with the Dems)
Republicans: 51

That's roughly in line with the polls too - but I'm a wee bit worried about the late surge being reported by Republican websites. Is it my imagination or has there been a late surge for the GOP in every election from 2000 on? And does that mean the GOP are better at judging their efforts than the Dems or does it just mean that they are adept at setting up plausible denial for election fraud on a grand scale? What do you think?

One thing I will say - if the Dems win even the House today I will breathe a huge sigh of relief if the Congress finally convenes. I've worried for a while now that Bush was setting up an ideal situation for martial law under his unitary executive and a Dem-controlled House that actually makes it to their seats would go a long way to assuaging my worry that democracy itself might just be on the way to becoming toast in America.

Update This kind of stuff is why I worry - Bush basically saying vote Republican or die:

Bush, on a final three-state swing of a campaign dominated by the war in Iraq, branded Democrats as soft on the "war on terror" and also predicted Republicans would crush their rivals' hopes of seizing back control of one or both chambers of Congress.

...Despite polls showing public discontent over his management of the Iraq war, Bush delivered a hard-hitting warning to voters, staking out political ground on national security that helped him win past campaigns.

"As you go to the polls remember if you want your taxes low vote Republican," Bush said at a rally in Pensacola, Florida.

"As you go the the polls, remember we are at war and if you want this country to do everything in its power to protect you and at the same time lay the foundation of peace for generations to come, vote Republican."

Bush again taunted his rivals with the death sentence handed down to former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein on Sunday, saying it was vindication for the US invasion in 2003.

"My decision to get rid of Saddam Hussein was the right decision, and the world is better for it," he said, as the crowd burst into a chant of "USA! USA!"

"The only way we will not win is if we leave before the job is done," he said. "If you listen for the plan from the Democrats, there isn't one."

Not only is this kind of language only a step to the right away from saying Democrats are "materially aiding" terrorists by their policies - the kind of allegation that could get even a U.S. citizen locked away awaiting the pleasure of a military tribunal - but Bush seems awful certain, still, that the Dems will be crushed, somehow.