George And Osama Sittin' In A Tree...

There's a new study by the premier British think-tank, Chatham House. It's main findings are:

Al-Qaeda's image as a global player has been unintentionally enhanced by the US and its allies

However, the US-led globally coordinated security measures have seriously undermined Al-Qaeda’s communication, finance and recruitment networks

One of Al-Qaeda’s most significant propaganda gains is its successful creation of a commonly held view that there is a link between terrorism and regional crises - e.g. Israel-Palestine and Iraq

Al-Qaeda has lost support with the 'Muslim street' - although it has disturbed the political status quo in the Middle East and prompted further terrorist attacks in Madrid and London

So there's no "great war of civilizations" in the offing, no matter what the uber-right may want. In fact, the report says that "Rather than increasing its support among Muslims, Al-Qaeda has witnessed increased support for moderate non-violent factions within the Islamist movements."

Interestingly, some of the Bush administration's lower-key efforts - the ones everyone agreed with - have been the most successful. It has been the warmongering and scaremongering that has actually helped Al-Qaida, though.

No wonder the Guardian ran a headline today: Bush and Bin Laden locked in an embrace.

After studiously ignoring him for much of the past five years, George Bush is making Osama bin Laden a headline issue in this autumn's knife-edge mid-term congressional elections. But the US president's tactical switch has raised suspicions that Republicans are once again resorting to the politics of fear.

...Bin Laden's political comeback was sealed by no less than 17 name checks during a Bush speech in Washington on Tuesday. Since declaring after the September 11 2001 attacks that he wanted him "dead or alive", Mr Bush had tended to avoid mention of the al-Qaida leader for fear of reminding Americans of his failure to catch him.

Now the president has changed course, reportedly at the behest of Karl Rove, his chief strategist, and started talking up the global menace represented by the "enemy leader". In another positional shift, he asserted that Bin Laden, his followers and emulators were "not madmen ... they kill in the name of a clear and focused ideology, a set of beliefs that are evil but not insane", he said. That made them even more scary.

A threatening Bin Laden videotape released just before polling day in the 2004 presidential election is believed to have boosted Mr Bush's lead over his opponent, John Kerry, by several points. Perhaps the White House is calculating that the "Osama factor" will work for Republicans again as the Democrats attempt to exploit growing voter worries about terrorism.