The UK Sky Terror Plot - Facts and Fancy

The big news today is the foiling of a massive plot to blow up airliners heading to the US from Britain. Its way too early to say a damn thing substantive about this but that isn't stopping a lot of people trying.

Have a look at memeorandum.com right now to get the main news stories and the massive blogging effort - mostly from the Militant Right, who never saw a gun they didn't want to jump.

Here's the full Scotland Yard statement devoid of any additional speculation, spin or agenda-driven drivel. There's a pretty good round-up of the major reports and some of the speculation over at James Joyner's blog too.

Here's what we know:

A plot has been alleged to blow up airliners in transit using what is probably binary liquid explosive hidden in carry-on luggage. That means suicide bombers. The plot is certainly credible on a practical level - binary liquids (Kinepak) are far more destructive than dynamite and when separated don't even qualify as explosives for storage purposes in most US states. Security on binaries is far more lax and for a long time they could be ordered through the mail (maybe even still? I haven't checked).

Although early reports said three bombs were planned, the number of airliners targeted by the plot has now risen to between six and twelve, depending on whether you read the BBC, Murdoch's Sky News tabloid-TV or something in between.

The number of arrested plotters started out being reported as eighteen but is now up as far as twenty-one according to some reports. The number of plotters may be as large as over fifty. That's a big, unweildy plot where the likelihood of exposure was always going to be far more than a smaller one.

There's no doubt that the plotters were Islamist extremists. Most reports say they were British citizens, mostly of Pakistani extraction. However Michael Chertoff has suggested there may be an al-Qaida connection.

No-one has admitted actually finding any bombs yet although the BBC is reporting that "items of interest" have been found in police raids.

Scotland Yard are saying they have disrupted the plot but the terror alert level has been raised to that for an "immanent threat of attack" anyway just in case there were undiscovered parts of the plot, causing widespread disruption to air travel.

First reports said that "It is believed the covert investigation had been going on for several months and it is understood that officers made the arrests overnight, not because they feared an attack was likely to happen on Thursday but for other intelligence reasons which meant they had to act quickly." However, Michael Chertoff has said that he believes "they were getting quite close to the impementation phase".

That's it. The Lot. It isn't a lot.

Any speculation - from thoughts of an Iranian plot for an 8/22 "Mahdi spectacular" to suspicions that this is more like Miami or the London gas-bomb-that-wasn't than to 9/11 - is just that.

I've my own thoughts but I'm going to hold off until there's more information to work with.