Playstation Wargames For Real

Aziz P at conservative website Dean's World shocked the hell out of that site's neocon readers today:

That Israel has lost, and Hizbollah has won, is the immutable conclusion of all but the most uninformed or ideological of observers. And this newfound realism is evident in all corners of Israel's sphere of sympathy.

...And what of our own national interest? Given that the United States is wedded to the idea of making democracy bloom in the middle east as the ultimate answer to the appeal of fanatical islam, one can only conclude that our own security has been undermined by Israel's failure of will and our own Administrations failure of leadership. With Lebanese democracy, hinges the fate of Arab democracy. Iraq has noticed, and that's going to bear the biggest bitter fruit of all.

He shocked them so much he had to make a later post saying that, while Israel had lost this war, "in the long term, Israel will not only survive but even prosper." That's because, he realizes, Israel isn't under an "existential threat" from Hezboullah or even from more widespread Islamic militancy in the hands of State agents.

Wonder of wonders, another neocon on the way to his "No Road To Damascus" moment.

He's not the only one who is belatedly realizing that the neocon plan has struck out again. Aziz P quotes and links to the National Review:

We may not be losing in the Middle East, but we certainly aren’t winning. On top of the growing chaos in Baghdad comes the prospect of a Hezbollah victory in its confrontation with Israel, which would strengthen Iran’s play for regional dominance.

Ralph Peters:

Despite one failure after another, the myth of antiseptic techno-war, of immaculate victories through airpower, persists. The defense industry fosters it for profit, and the notion is seductive to politicians: a quick win without friendly casualties.

The problem is that it never works. Never.

And Brett Stephens:

if it keeps going as it is, Israel is headed for the greatest military humiliation in its history. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israelis were stunned by their early reversals against Egypt and Syria, yet they eked out a victory over these two powerfully armed, Soviet-backed adversaries in 20 days. The conflict with Hezbollah--a 15,000-man militia chiefly armed with World War II-era Katyusha rockets--is now in its 21st day. So far, Israel has nothing to show for its efforts: no enemy territory gained, no enemy leaders killed, no abatement in the missile barrage that has sent a million Israelis from their homes and workplaces.

Yet all of these luminaries share another response in common with Aziz P. Every single one goes on to say that the defeat isn't the fault of the neocons and their plan, the one they were all so gung-ho about when hostilities broke out and crowing would work this time, when used by Israel, as it hadn't worked last time or the time before.

Let's call it the "Scooby-Doo Villain" excuse. "Our neocon master plan would have worked if it wasn't for those pesky...liberals who undermined us/propaganda defeats that were probably faked/lilly-livered politicians/cowardly generals who wouldn't be cruel enough/terr'ists who wouldn't fight the way we wanted them to. (Delete as applicable)

You'd think by now they would've worked some kind of solution to the "peskies" into their master plan. After all. they've failed to carry through on their promises in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Lebanon...

But they haven't and in fact are already pressing to apply their warmongering to Iran and to Syria. Next time, they say the neocon plan will work for sure. No matter what the experts on fighting a fourth-generation enemy have to say about it. A quick look at Aziz P's post title will give you the clue why they are so slow to learn.

Game Over

Now that's a singularly crass insult to all the brave Israeli troops and to the Lebanese civilians. But it is also something more. Charles Stross recently wrote that the political landscape of the early to mid 21st century has already been designed and it is based on role-playing games and thus by extension on video games. He continued:

The two general failure modes will be: (a) thinking that something is a game, when in actual fact it isn't, and (b) thinking something is real when it's just a simulation. These will also interact with a population who take longer to reach "traditional" adulthood (if they ever do so), and who therefore may engage in game-play or learning oriented behaviour inappropriately.

The neocons, as graphically illustrated by Aziz P, are engaging in "game-play or learning oriented behaviour" inappropriately. They truly think they can hit restart and play "the game" one more time, and that this time their plan will work.