Iraq's New Day, New Corner, New and Old Problems

According to George Bush, coming back from church today, "the formation of a unity government in Iraq is a new day for the millions of Iraqis who want to live in freedom." Meanwhile, Condi Rice, in a statement eerily similiar to Dubya's ill-fated assessment of Russia's Putin told the world about the new Iraqi Prime Minister - "I've met him. I've looked into his eyes. This is somebody who is determined to do what is right for the Iraqi people." The rhetoric, yet again, is of a "last throe" for the insurgency, of an eventual drawdown but "no timetable" for doing so and of a "corner" being turned.

Unfortunately, for many ordinary Iraqis, turning that corner may expose them to the withering crossfire of sectarian feuds which have become a civil war even if no-one pearing over the parapets of the Green Zone wishes to admit it. Two separate major UK newspapers have run reports this weekend on Iraq's meltdown. At the Independent, Patrick Cockburn looked at ethnic cleansing he describes as "like Bosnia" and has been widely quoted by bloggers. The Guardian's Ghaith Abdul-Ahad has a likewise intimate portrayal of the "hidden war", taking it to the streets to speak to individual Iraqis. Surprisingly, his report hasn't attracted as much notice yet his account of the daily "slideshow" at the Baghdad mortuary - there are too many dead each day to allow all the relatives inside - is as harrowing as it is revealing about the truth-on-the-ground concealed by reports of unfilled cabinet ministries at Defense and Interior.

The ministry is under the control of the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and a large mural of his dead ayatollah father decorates the entrance to the compound. Most of the security guards in the morgue and the ministry are affiliated to his militia, the Mahdi army, one of the militias thought to be behind the sectarian killing going on in their neighbourhoods.

"Why do you want to go inside? Those inside are all terrorists, Sunni terrorists," said Captain Abu Ahmad, the officer in charge of security at the morgue, when the Guardian presented a document granting permission from the ministry of health to visit. "If you want to see innocent victims, go to the hospitals and see the victims of Sunni terrorism on Shia civilians."

Not only does this show the level to which Iraq's daily apparatus of government has been polarized into factions, it shows the building of vendettas and urban legends of hate which will, I fear, fuel this civil war for more than a decade no matter who sits in the assembly in the safe Green Zone.

The Gurdian report also quotes one Sunni insurgency leader, who says that the civil war has begun and that the Shia will probably win due to more and better militias, leaders and equipment. Then he adds, in a statement that should run shudders up the backs of all those watching the neocon rush to war with Iran:

"Our only hope is if the Americans hit the Iranians, and by God's will this day will come very soon, then the Americans will give a medal to anyone who kills a Shia militiaman. When we feel that an American attack on Iran is imminent, I myself will shoot anyone who attacks the Americans and all the mujahideen will join the US army against the Iranians."

Should that happen, then there should be no doubt that the "unity government" - only a day old and already seen as nothing of the sort - will collapse in the shockwaves of the explosions.