Iraq - Only Three Provinces Now Stable

Yet again the Bush administration repeats factoids as if they were real right up until their own civil servants point out the lie.

From UPI via the Post Chronicle:

A Government Accountability Office report, based on recent State Department and U.S. military assessments in Iraq, suggests the country is on a downward slope. Insurgent attacks increased 23 percent between 2004 and 2005, and oil, electricity and water services are all below pre-invasion levels.

The assertion by the U.S. military and the Bush administration that Iraq's problems are limited to four provinces can be traced back to then-Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, who put forth that argument in a press conference with President Bush in September 2004.

"Out of these 18 provinces, 14 to 15 are completely safe, there are no problems," Allawi said.

The factoid was picked up by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in his testimony to Congress on Iraq in February 2005, and repeated by then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Richard Myers in May 2005. Myers also reported that attacks were down 25 percent during the fall and winter, coinciding with Ramadan 2004 and the elections. Vice President Dick Cheney predicted in June 2005 the insurgency was in its "last throes."

But new data revealed by the GAO suggests the opposite is true.

According to the U.S. Embassy/Multinational Force Iraq National Coordination Team's Provincial Stability Assessment generated in March, just three of Iraq's provinces are stable, and all of them are in so-called Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

Eight provinces are considered moderately stable, all of them south of Baghdad in heavily Shi'ite areas. Moderate provinces are considered those that have a functioning government but still have areas of concern, including sectarian militias; an economy that is slowly developing but still suffer from high unemployment; and a security situation that is under control "but where conditions exist that could quickly lead to instability."

Six provinces - Ninevah, Tamim, Salah ah Din, Diyala, Baghdad and Basrah - are in "serious" condition. Their provincial governments are not fully formed or not capable off serving the needs of the populace; economic development is stagnant and unemployment is high; and the security situation is marked by routine insurgent activity, assassination and extremism.

Anbar province, the vast Sunni area west of Baghdad that comprises Ramadi, Fallujah, Haditha, and al Qaim, is in "critical" condition. The government is not functioning, the economy does not have an infrastructure or the government leadership to develop it, and it is a significant contributor to instability, and there are high levels of insurgent activity, assassinations and extremism.

There are more uncomfortable statistics too - power generation is down:

Iraq's peak generation capacity prior to the war was 4300 megawatts. As of March, electrical generation was 4,092 megawatts, with a peak in July 2005 of 5,387 megawatts. The U.S. goal is 6,000 megawatts. U.S. officials in Baghdad say the Iraqi demand for electricity now that consumer electronics are widely available is well above 8,000 megawatts.

Oil production isn't meeting targets - not nearly:

Prior to the war, Iraq's pre-war production capacity of crude oil was 2.6 million barrels per day. Production as of March 2006 was 2 million barrels per day. The United States' goal has been to increase that to 3 million per day.

And the percentage that has drinkable water has dropped from 50% to 32%.

The most serious problem with the water supply is not its production but its distribution. Some 1.1 million cubic meters of drinking water per day is now produced. The U.S. goal is 2.5 million cubic meters per day. According to the GAO, 60 percent of the fresh water is lost due to leakage, contamination and illegal connections. Potable water and sewer lines are adjacent to each other in some places, which allows leaking sewage to enter water lines, if there is insufficient pressure in the water mains.

Remember how Iraq's oil revenue was supposed to not only pay for all the reconstruction but also give America cheap gas at the pumps?

Oops.