The GOP's Sectarian War Over Iraq

Michael Hirsh argues in the new edition of Newsweek that the GOP is split by continued failure in Iraq into openly warring traditionalist and neocon camps - and that if Iraq descends into full-blown civil war then the neocons will descend into the footnotes of history. Should that occur,

the GOP, having exorcised the alien neocon demon that possessed it, will pretty much revert to its origins, adopting a Jeffersonian caution about world affairs that will hand the reins back to the realists (who, in truth—with the possible exception of Henry Kissinger—were never pure hard-power realists anyway; they were always the "Wilsonian realists" that pundits like Francis Fukuyama now argue they should become again).

Thus come the arguments between repentant neocons like William Buckley and Francis Fukayama on one hand and Charles Krauthammer and Victor Davis Hanson on the other.

What are they arguing about? Essentially everything that is novel about Bush's foreign policy: pre-emption and regime change, and the fiscal costs of this program.

Hirsh argues that if the Iraqi adventure fails then so to does neoconservatism...and then condradicts himself while making an ominous prediction:

Until then, unfortunately, the debate over the neocon agenda—whether it becomes a mere historical footnote or perhaps, tragically, a watershed for the decline of U.S. power—will not be completely resolved in anyone's mind. What is clear, at the very least, is that the cavalier neocon attitude toward military power is over. It will be another generation before any American president after Bush will have an appetite for going to war. The danger now is that, despite these realities on the ground, regime-change fever continues to affect some at the upper levels of the Bush administration who cannot admit the titanic errors made with Iraq.

Hence the continued confusion over U.S. policy toward Iran...

...In the end, when faced with a standoff like the one over Iran's nuclear program, one can only negotiate or go to war. And this president has not given up his hopes for the latter option, despite the shadow of Warren Harding-hood that hangs over him.

There, exactly, is the rub. Hawks of all stripes may squabble like jackdaws when it comes to Iraq but even the "to hell with them" hawks are sharpening their talons for Iran. The neoconservative movement sees a chance to salvage itself by replaying the whole movie again - Iraq, The Directors Cut - and hope for a new and happier ending for their dreams of glory. To that end the first scene - the rush for war fuelled by fearmongering and false intelligence, is well under way.