War By Proxy

Ever wonder why there was so much belief in the Arab Street that the Samarra bombing was carried out by Israeli or US special forces? Wonder no further.

Egypt's "Al-Ahram Weekly" has an important op-ed on the likely consequences of a US or Israeli strike on Iran. It's assessment of those consequences is utterly accurate, including probable failure to stop any nuclear program, massive Chernobylesque environmental devastation across the entire region and the kind of blowback that the US is simply unprepared to deal with:

That Iran does not possess the conventional means to support a defensive military strategy heightens the prospect that it will resort to unconventional means, to a non-military strategy of an essentially retaliatory nature. The Iranian leadership has in the past shown astuteness in using its intelligence services and diplomacy in furthering its political and strategic objectives. The chances are that when backed into a corner Tehran will pursue an aggressive response that will take the form of a series of high-impact paramilitary operations that Western powers will inevitably classify as terrorist acts.

One can easily envision a series of attacks against US military, diplomatic and economic targets, mostly in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, in addition to suicide bombings, mounted directly by Iranian operatives or indirectly by allied organisations, targeting US and Israeli interests worldwide. Simultaneously, Tehran is likely to increase its support for Palestinian resistance organisations, especially those of an Islamist stripe, and will attempt to fuel renewed confrontation along the Lebanese-Israeli border, relying primarily on Hizbullah, its main ally in the vicinity, and focussing, at least initially, on the Israeli-occupied Shabaa Farms.

Of more immediate concern to Washington will be the prospect of intensive Iranian diplomatic and strategic intervention in Iraq. By more actively supporting factions within the Iraqi resistance, and by asserting itself more forcefully as a key player in Iraqi domestic politics, Iran could seriously impede US interests in Iraq in both the short and long terms. Finally there is the prospect, equally alarming to the US and the West, that Iran might attempt to tamper with the flow of oil from the Gulf. A limited strike, or even the threat of a strike against oil facilities in the region, would send shock waves through the already jumpy international oil market. This, in turn, would bring the US directly under the spotlight for provoking such adverse consequences through its military strike against Iran.

Given the foregoing -- and add to them the reaction of international public opinion, the pressures of the US and the far reaching consequences of any Iranian response to a strike -- and it seems unlikely that the US and its allies will pursue a military option. There is, unfortunately, another and far more likely scenario -- war by proxy. A war between Sunnis and Shias in the region could all too easily present itself as the solution to the West's dilemma. It would sap the capacities of both sides to the benefit of many parties, none of them Arab or Muslim.

Clearer now?