Thursday, March 16, 2006

Operation Another Last Throe

First let me say that I am truly embarassed by the number of progressive, liberal, lefty and Dem bloggers who don't know the difference between an air assault and an air strike. The first is a way of getting soldiers to a target, the second is a way of getting bombs and missiles to that same target. Folks, if you are going to comment on foreign policy at all then at least get a glimmer of a clue about things military - because nowadays the Bush foreign policy is carried out at the barrel of a gun or the threat of one.

O.K. Having got that off my chest...

I've been reading about Operation Swarmer, the largest air assault in Iraq since the invasion. 1500 troops, transported by air into a region near Samarra to clean out "a suspected insurgent operating area".

And I want to tell you now that Gen. Abizaid is full of shit:
Gen. John Abizaid, chief of the U.S. Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon the operation was not related to any anticipated outburst of sectarian violence in the area or a significant departure from previous military actions.

Abizaid said it was aimed at al-Qaida in Iraq and other insurgent cells although there was "no specific high-value target that I know of."

"I wouldn't characterize this as being anything that's a big departure from normal or from the need to prosecute a target that we think was lucrative enough to commit this much force to go get," he said.
Who does he think he is kidding? The very fact of the size of the operation gives his words the lie. Add to that the words of Hoshyar Zebari, the Iraqi interim foreign minister, who said the attack had been necessary to prevent insurgents from forming a new stronghold such as they had established in Fallujah and you see how much spin Abizaid is attempting.

1500 troops, 200 armored vehicles, 50 aircraft. That's no small effort. Then add in the method - helicopter assault. They may have been training Iraqi airborne troops (unlikely, the Iraqis don't have enough helicopters of their own to make it worthwhile) or maybe trying to increase the element of surprise - but for 40 years the major reason the U.S, has used helicopter insertion has been that the roads have become too dangerous to use.

So here's the scenario - an almost Fallujah-like concentration of insurgency forces which requires half a brigade to subdue. An area that cannot be approached by road without taking serious casualties from IED's and ambushes and tipping of the targets because locals are so much on their side.

It's been three years. This kind of situation shouldn't be happening any more by any rational standard of "success" in fighting an insurgency. To still be holding operations like this now is a definition of "lost".

Update 17th March Christopher at Back To Iraq is calling it "Operation Overblown".
according to a colleague of mine from TIME who traveled up there today on a U.S. embassy-sponsored trip, there are no insurgents, no fighting and 17 of the 41 prisoners taken have already been released after just one day. The “number of weapons caches” equals six, which isn’t unusual when you travel around Iraq. They’re literally everywhere.

...Also, it’s a telling example of how “well” things are going in Iraq that after three years, the U.S. is still leading the fight and conducting sweeps in an area that has been swept/contained/pacfied/cleared five or six times since 2004. How long before the U.S. has to come back again?)

As noted, about 1,500 troops were involved, 700 American and 800 Iraqi. But get this: in the area they’re scouring there are only about 1,500 residents. According to my colleague and other reporters who were there, not a single shot has been fired.

“Operation Swarmer” is really a media show. It was designed to show off the new Iraqi Army — although there was no enemy for them to fight. Every American official I’ve heard has emphasized the role of the Iraqi forces just days before the third anniversary of the start of the war. That said, one Iraqi role the military will start highlighting in the next few days, I imagine, is that of Iraqi intelligence. It was intel from the Iraqi military intelligence and interior ministry that the U.S. says prompted this Potemkin operation. And it will be the Iraqi intel that provides the cover for American military commanders to throw up their hands and say, “well, we thought bad guys were there.”
Heh. Indeed.

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