It's still unclear who carried out the original attack - no-one has claimed responsibility - but everyone is lining up their favorite suspect for the blame. The US and UK are blaming Al Qaida, because if it turns out to be them then the backlash from Shia and Sunni alike will be their death knell in Iraq. Israel would no doubt like to find a reason to implicate Iran, their current bugbear de jour in the same way that Iran is already blaming the US and "Zionists". Shia fanatics want the police uniform clad bombers to be Sunni extremists to justify a further round of retaliations and I have no doubt that Sunnis would feel most comfortable if the perpetrators turned out to be another Shia police-force death squad doing a bit of 5th column work to whip their own into a frenzy.
I have to hope it is proven beyond all doubt to be Al Qaida's handiwork, because that's that is about the only way I see that the current "soft" civil war in Iraq of tit for tat killings and attacks between Sunni and Shia factions will not degenerate into a full fledged and devastating "hard" war, with major fallout throughout the region and beyond. Then again, if Al Qaida get the certain blame, then a whole lot of support for them in the Moslem world will evaporate. We've already seen them clash with Hezboullah in southern Lebanon and Afif Naboulsi, Hizbullah's director of media relations, tell the press:
"We do not have any relationship with that group. They are working toward tearing the Islamic Nation apart, dividing Muslims into numerous sects and mutilating the face of Islam."If Al-Zarqawi's organisation carried out the bombing in Samarra, one of the most important sites in the Moslem world, then that assessment by Hezboullah will become the assessment of most Moslems worldwide very quickly indeed.
In the meantime there are protests of tens of thousands in Lebanon and Bahrain where they seem to be blaming Al Qaeda. The Iranian Grand Ayatollah and (supposedly barking mad) President have both appealed for calm while blaming the US and "Zionists" and offered to help rebuild the shrine (as have others, including Italy and the US). Indeed, leaders from every major nation have condemned both the original bombing and the scores of retaliatory attacks that have left more than 100 dead.
In one of the best pieces of news so far, Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr has "ordered the Mehdi Army to protect Sunni mosques and religious places in Basra and in other regions" where his movement is influential".
On the minus side, Iraq is under a security lockdown - and the fact that it's being handled by an Interior Ministry already involved in an uproar over Shia militia death squads operating under it's banner won't help the situation at all. Just as worryingly, the main Sunni party, the Sunni Accord Front announced it is leaving political unity talks after meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. According to Iyad al-Samarrai, a senior member of the IAF, the group skipped the meeting because of reprisal attacks against Sunni mosques and what he said was the failure of the government condemn or prevent them. Of course, if retaliatory attacks continue to gather pace then that too will be very much on the minus side.
If the Sunni minority begins to disengage from a political process in which they see no hope, Iraqi government ministries continue to be seen (and proven) to be refuges for Shia extremists bent on religious cleansing and tit for tat killings continue to escalate then there are no fine words which will prevent the transformation from soft to hard war in Iraq. Ditto if there are another couple of attacks as nasty and as inflammatory as this one in the nearterm. That conflict would spill over into other neighbouring nations rapidly as well as provide a crucible for Coalition troops unlike anything so far witnessed.
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