Mid-East Meltdown?

The world, according to Georgie, is a safer place since the invasion of Iraq. A quick look at what's actually happening in the world beyond the current silly feud over Rove and Plame suggests otherwise, though. I'm beginning to wonder if the new Bush foreign policy isn't "let them fight each other over there so we don't have to fight them over here".

This from the Telegraph:

Condoleezza Rice, America's Secretary of State, will make an emergency visit to the Middle East this week after a five-month truce between Israelis and Palestinians descended into violence and pushed Gaza to the brink of civil war.

Yep, that'll be the spreading democratic freedom, then.

Palestinian officials said that the Gaza Strip, from where Israel plans to remove 8,000 settlers in less than a month's time, was "on the edge of the abyss" after running gun battles between Palestinian security forces and Hamas militants...It's a critical time," said Hanan Ashrawi, a senior Palestinian legislator. "There is a serious danger of general conflict. Abbas must galvanise popular support if he is to survive. But if Hamas and Islamic Jihad take the ascendancy with the use of weapons his position will become impossible."

Meanwhile, Israel is adamant that it will not withdraw from Gaza under fire and has promised a "strong and harsh" response to any attacks, setting the scene for a three-way conflict.

On Friday, I wrote that the danger of civil war in Iraq has never been more real and that the Coalition allies seem to be leaning towards spinning the situation as "not our fault" rather than planning to stick around and attempt to prevent meltdown.

And back in April, Jane's Foreign Report described Lebanon as a "ticking time-bomb" - a situation that hasn't improved since the elections, with the assasination of a prominent anti-Syrian politician and a populace split into armed camps.

Civil wars in any or all of these places will be certain to draw in the main regional powers - Israel, Egypt, Syria and Iran - as well as attracting probable conflicts of interest between China, Russia, Europe and the US. Intercine conflict in the region is almost certain to spin off new conflicts too, in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and elsewhere, as well as fuelling a generalized fued between Sunni and Shia on one hand and between extremist Moslems and the West on the other.

The US stands to be hopelessly entangled in these fights, losing lives and money at every step, for generations. Yet again, fighting "over there" will have a direct effect on "over here". The policy is still flawed because the fighting just keeps increasing with no end in sight, ever.