Lebanese Regime Change?

After posting this excellent article from Foreign Policy in Focus this morning, this afternoon I read that the entire government of Lebanon has quit after popular protests and in the face of a vote of no-confidence. A great victory for democracy, almost like Berlin in 1989.

Well- not quite.

Elections were scheduled for May in any case and the current government has been told by the Lebanese President to stay in place in a caretaker role until then. Some moderates in Lebanon have pointed out that if the demonstrating opposition were so keen on democracy, then they would have waited until May and allowed the ballots to speak for them. It's a valid point. Democracy is about the voice of the people, not the voice of the people who shout loudest.

President Emile Ladoud himself has not resigned. It was the unconstitutional extension of his term, made with Syrian backing, that led Hariri to resign from government in the first place. Without that, Hariri would probably be Prime Minister right now. Although he disagreed with Syria on internal politics, he was mostly in accord with them on strategic matters.

Let us not fool ourselves. People like Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Druze who have a powerful militia, who has been hiding in his mountain fortess for "fear of assasination by Syria", are unlikely to have the cause of democracy at heart - or anyones' cause except their own. There are also groups like the pro-Syrian Hizboullah, which is a legal political party in Lebanon as well as a militia with it's own troops. Hizboullah, hated by the US, have long been seen by many Lebanese as their saviours after kicking Israeli occupation out of the country.

So, tentatively, I will echo the words of one Lebanese writing to the BBC:

Yes, we're happy, but the work has only just begun. We're still in a fragile state, and many problems still have to be resolved. It's a step hopefully in the right direction. I wish though, that the people who are lauding Bush just take a step back and show a bit of modesty. It's not like we've wanted to live in tyranny and the idea of liberty, with all due respect, is not his. It's an age old concept. And if the chaos in Iraq and the hundreds of people dying daily is liberty, well I don't want that kind of freedom. I want the kind that comes with peace, thank you very much. (Joumana, Beirut, Lebanon)